Device Trends and Process Materials Requirements

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The Device Trends report provides a comprehensive look at semiconductor materials requirements for current and future devices.

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Description

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  1.   Executive Summary – Supply Chain Challenges…………………… 9
  2.   Scope………………………………………………………………………. 10
  3.   Introduction………………………………………………………………. 11

3.1.       The Start and Growth of the Semiconductor Industry… 12

3.2.      The Asian Semiconductor Industry…………………………… 17

3.3.       The Changing Market……………………………………………… 18

3.4.      Where have we come from?……………………………………. 19

  1.   Future Trends……………………………………………………………. 21

4.1.      Economics…………………………………………………………….. 21

4.2.      MegaFabs and Gigafabs………………………………………….. 23

4.3.      Inflection Points……………………………………………………… 27

4.4.      TECHCET’s Wafer Forecast Model…………………………… 29

  1.   Device Technologies……………………………………………………. 31

5.1.      Mainstream in Production……………………………………….. 31

5.2.      LOGIC……………………………………………………………………. 33

5.3.      Memory………………………………………………………………… 36

5.4.      NON-VOLATILE MEMORY……………………………………… 37

5.5.      3D NAND………………………………………………………………. 38

5.5.1.1.    STORAGE CLASS MEMORY DEVICES………………. 42

5.5.1.1.1.   3D XPoint…………………………………………………. 42

5.2.      New Device Structures……………………………………………. 44

5.2.1.        Memory  Structures…………………………………………. 44

5.2.2.        Logic Structures……………………………………………… 44

5.3.      In Production – Niche Markets…………………………………. 47

5.3.1.        RRAM or ReRAM…………………………………………….. 47

5.3.2.        STT-RAM……………………………………………………….. 49

5.3.3.        PCRAM…………………………………………………………… 51

5.3.4.        FeRAM…………………………………………………………… 53

5.4.      Research stage………………………………………………………. 54

5.4.1.        MVO………………………………………………………………. 54

5.4.2.        CBRAM………………………………………………………….. 56

5.4.3.        NRAM…………………………………………………………….. 57

5.4.4.        Molecular/Carbon……………………………………………. 58

5.4.5.        Transistors For CMOS Extensions (ITRS 2015)……. 59

5.4.5.1.   Carbon Nanotube FETs………………………………… 59

5.4.5.2.   Nanowire FETs……………………………………………. 59

5.4.6.       III-V Channel Replacement Devices…………………… 60

5.5.      IoT Impacts……………………………………………………………. 61

  1.   Device to Process to Materials – Challenges………………………. 65

6.1.      3D NAND Process Challenge…………………………………… 65

6.2.      New Materials used in Memory……………………………….. 67

6.2.      Device Formation…………………………………………………… 68

6.3.      Interconnect…………………………………………………………… 71

6.4.      Lithography……………………………………………………………. 77

6.5.      ALD………………………………………………………………………. 81

6.6.      ALE – Atomic Layer Etching……………………………………. 84

6.7.      Cleaning………………………………………………………………… 86

  1.   Materials………………………………………………………………….. 88

7.1.       ALD/CVD PRECURSORS…………………………………………. 88

7.2.       High K and Gate Electrodes…………………………………….. 88

7.2.1.        Barriers and Capping Layers…………………………….. 89

7.2.2.        ALD/CVD Metal Precursor Market…………………….. 89

7.3.       Gases……………………………………………………………………. 90

7.3.1.         Inert Gases……………………………………………………… 91

7.4.       Bulk Chemicals………………………………………………………. 93

7.5.       Dielectrics Precursors……………………………………………… 94

7.6.      CMP……………………………………………………………………… 95

7.7.       Sputtering Targets…………………………………………………. 96

7.8.       Photoresists, Ancillaries & Extension Materials…………. 97

  1.   Materials Market Dynamics………………………………………….. 99

8.1.      Materials Supply Chain Management………………………. 99

8.2.      Quality and Purity Issues………………………………………… 99

8.3.      Materials Supply Chain Issues………………………………… 101

8.4.      Future Materials Requirements and Rare Earths Minerals and Metals……………………………………………………………………… 102

8.5.      Materials Market Opportunities and Challenges………. 103

8.5.1.        IoT opportunities………………………………………………. 103

8.5.2.        Semiconductor Center of Gravity Shifts West………. 104

8.5.1.        Meeting the China Challenges……………………………. 105

  1.   Global and Operation issues………………………………………… 108

9.1.      Recycling……………………………………………………………… 108

9.2.      Cost Structure Changes…………………………………………. 108

9.3.      WIP Management…………………………………………………. 110

  1.   Conclusions & Take Aways………………………………………….. 111
  2.   Bibliography……………………………………………………………. 113
  3.   TECHCET Critical Materials Report Advisories…………………. 114

List of Figures

Figure 1: Shockley Laboratory – where the semiconductor industry began. 13

Figure 2: Silicon Valley. 14

Figure 3: Japanese Yen to US Dollar Exchange Rates from 1976 to 2016. 15

Figure 4: Hsinchu Science Park. 16

Figure 5: Elements Used in Today’s Smartphones. 18

Figure 6: Depletion of elements – how long will the supply of certain elements last?. 19

Figure 7: TSMC Wafer Revenue from Advance Process Technology. 23

Figure 8: Companies Building Major Fabs and Growth in Fab CAPEX and Process Development Costs. 25

Figure 9: Capex for Top 10 Semiconductor Companies – Revenue. 26

Figure 10: High purity semiconductor utility systems – Training Opportunity. 27

Figure 11: TECHCET’s Wafer Forecast Model 29

Figure 12: Emerging Memory Devices. 31

Figure 13: Memory Scaling Wall 32

Figure 14: IMEC Logic Roadmap. 34

Figure 15: Transistor Revolution (AMAT Inflection Point Presentations) 35

Figure 16: Key Inflections in Moore’s Law (AMAT Inflection Presentation) DRAM.. 36

Figure 17: Advantages of Vertical MOSFETs. 37

Figure 19 V-NAND TEM showing levels. 40

Figure 18: NAND Flash. 40

Figure 19: V-NAND Showing Gate Detail (AMAT) 40

Figure 20: V-NAND Showing Stair-Step Interconnect Structure (Techinsights) 41

Figure 21: 3D-NAND Toshiba, Samsung, SK Hynix and Intel/Micron. 42

Figure 22: What is 3D XPpoint?. 43

Figure 23: Recessed Channel Transistors. 45

Figure 24: Replacement Gate Transistor Stacking. 45

Figure 25: LETI CoolCube. 46

Figure 26: Heat map. 47

Figure 27: Which Materials are Manufacturing Worthy?. 48

Figure 28: HfOx Based RRAM.. 49

Figure 29: HfOx Based RRAM.. 50

Figure 30: Complex Structure for STT-RAM (ITRS) 51

Figure 31: Phase Change Materials. 52

Figure 32: Chalcogenide Phase Change Memory. 52

Figure 33: FeRAM Material 53

Figure 34: FRAM.. 54

Figure 35: Alternative Memory Concepts (Micron) 55

Figure 36: CBRAM showing states. 56

Figure 37: Re-RAM Dual CbRAM.. 57

Figure 38: NRAM or Nano RAM.. 58

Figure 39: Molecular Memory Device. 59

Figure 40: Flow of 200mm Tools to China. 61

Figure 41: Flow of 200mm tools to China. 62

Figure 42: 200mm Fab Count Since 2007 (TECHCET) 63

Figure 43: ASPs of 200mm Tools Purchased by Fabs in China (Global Surplus) 64

Figure 44: ASPs of 200mm tools purchased by fabs in China (Global Surplus) 64

Figure 45: ASPs of 200mm tools purchased by fabs in China (Global Surplus) 68

Figure 46: Logic Cross Section (AMAT/Techinsight) 72

Figure 47: ITRS Half-Pitch Conversion (ITRS) 74

Figure 48: Damascene Cu Barrier Thicknesses (ITRS 2012) 75

Figure 49: Mask by Node (TECHCET) 78

Figure 50: EUV Schematic indicating the complexity. 79

Figure 51: Masks per Mask Set (eBeam Initiative) 80

Figure 52: Market Share of ASML, Canon and Nikon. 81

Figure 53: ALD Materials Innovations. 83

Figure 54: ALE Cycles. 85

Figure 55: ALE and ALD Steps. 85

Figure 56: Gases as a percentage of Air 92

Figure 57: Control Charts. 100

Figure 58: Material Supply Problems. 102

Figure 59: Technology Roadmap for IoT. 103

 

List of Tables

Table 1: Progress Over 4 Decades. 20

Table 2: Cost Analysis Table. 22

Table 3: ITRS Logic Roadmap (2015) 33

Table 4: DRAM Technology. 37

Table 5: NAND Flash. 38

Table 6: Devices and Materials. 69

Table 7: Logic Cross Section (AMAT/Techinsight) 73

Table 8: Mask Layers per NODE.. 80

Table 9: Scaling Trend – ALD Applications for Memory & Logic. 82

Table 10: Neon Supply Matrix. 91

Table 11: Upcoming Chinese Fabs. 106

Table 12: Parameters by NODE.. 109

 

 

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