Silicon Wafers: Navigating Diameter Shifts and Demand Drivers
San Diego, CA, December 18, 2025: TECHCET — reports after challenging years, the wafer industry is forecasted to see stronger growth for the remainder of 2025. Shipment volumes are expected to have risen +5%, driven largely by increasing demand for 300mm wafers in 2025. Revenue is projected to increase nearly 4% to USD $14.0B, with both silicon and SOI wafers contributing to the gain. Looking ahead, shipment 5-year CAGRs is +7% according to TECHCET’s 2025-2026 Critical Materials Report™ on Silicon Wafers.
Market conditions continue to reflect both recovery and disruption as inventories slowly normalize, and new orders resume. Some order activity has been influenced by tariff uncertainty rather than pure market demand, particularly in smaller-diameter segments. The ongoing migration away from smaller sizes to more 300mm has intensified competitive pressure on 200mm and below, prompting capacity-management considerations among major suppliers. This trend has benefited China wafer makers, that are gaining share in the 200mm segment. Meanwhile, industry headlines from Shin-Etsu’s GaN performance milestone to GlobalWafers’ expansions (300mm) and SK siltron’s ownership restructuring highlight accelerating technical and strategic shifts across the supply base.
The wafer market remains on a trajectory shaped by advanced applications in HPC, AI, and leading-edge semiconductor logic. Smaller-diameter wafers are expected to gradually phase out over time, with diameters ≤125mm facing the highest sunset risk. Trade-related challenges, including potential tariff outcomes tied to the ongoing Section 232 Investigation of Polysilicon and Derivatives, may increase input costs and reshape supply strategies. As the market transitions, wafer suppliers will need to balance technology leadership, capacity investment, and geopolitical risk to maintain long-term competitiveness.
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