Description
This report covers the CMP Consumables market (specifically CMP slurry and pads) and supply-chain for those consumables used in semiconductor device fabrication. The report contains data and analysis from TECHCET’s data base and Sr. Analyst experience, as well as that developed from primary and secondary market research. CMP slurries and pads are a critical in semiconductor manufacturing as process integration requires the fabrication of thin and uniformly flat layers to build up device structures across the semiconductor wafers. The number of CMP process steps continue to increase with each generation of new device technology. New device technology is characterized by more layers, new materials, tighter process control requirements, and new techniques for advanced packaging. These manufacturing challenges require new developments in CMP slurries and pads. This report looks at the market drivers, slurry and pad forecasts by application, market shares, abrasive suppliers, and includes a special focus on advanced packaging.
• Contains information on the semiconductor related CMP Pads & Slurry market dynamics
• Provides focused information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R&D directors, as well as business development and financial analysts
• Includes supply-chain, market, and technical trends information relating to CMP pads, slurry, and disks as used for semiconductor device manufacturing.
• Covers information about key CMP Pads & Slurry suppliers, issues/trends in the electronics material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the electronics material segments
• Includes 3 Quarterly Updates, with updates on market trends and forecasts from the analyst
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Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9
1.1 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET OVERVIEW 10
1.2 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE TRENDS 11
1.3 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING CMP CONSUMABLES OUTLOOK 12
1.4 YEAR 2023 IN REVIEW 13
1.5 CMP CONSUMABLES FORECASTS BY MATERIAL SEGMENT 14
1.5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 15
1.5.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 16
1.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 17
1.7 SLURRY SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 18
1.8 PAD SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 19
1.9 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 20
1.9.1 ANALYST ASSESSMENT CONTINUED SEMICONDUCTOR 21
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 22
2.1 SCOPE 23
2.2 PURPOSE 24
2.3 METHODOLOGY 25
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR OFFERINGS 26
3 INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 27
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY AND OUTLOOK 28
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 30
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 31
3.1.3 TAIWAN OUTSOURCE MANUFACTURER MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 32
3.2 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT 33
3.2.1 ELECTRONICS OUTLOOK 34
3.2.2 AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 35
3.2.2.1 ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) MARKET TRENDS 36
3.2.2.2 INCREASE IN SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT FOR AUTOS 37
3.2.3 SMARTPHONE OUTLOOK 38
3.2.4 PC OUTLOOK 39
3.2.5 SERVERS / IT MARKET 40
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 41
3.3.1 IN THE MIDST OF HUGE INVESTMENT IN CHIP EXPANSIONS 42
3.3.2 NEW FABS IN THE US 43
3.3.3 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 44
3.3.4 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 45
3.3.4.1 ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 46
3.3.4.2 DRAM TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 47
3.3.4.3 3D NAND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 48
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 49
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 50
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OVERVIEW 51
3.5.1 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2028 52
3.5.2 TECHCET MATERIALS MARKET FORECAST THROUGH 2028 52
4 CMP CONSUMABLES TRENDS 54
4.1 CMP PADS AND SLURRIES (CONSUMABLES) MARKET TRENDS – OUTLINE 55
4.2 REGIONAL TRENDS 56
4.2.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 57
4.3 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 59
4.3.1 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS –
ADVANCED LOGIC 60
4.3.1.1 ADVANCED LOGIC TRANSISTOR EST. ROADMAP 61
4.3.2 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS – MEMORY 62
4.3.2.1 3D NAND ROADMAP 63
4.3.2.2 3D NAND STACKING 64
4.3.3 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 65
4.3.4 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 66
4.3.5 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING, CONTINUED 67
4.3.5.1 CMP FOR TSV – GAA BACKSIDE POWER 68
4.3.6 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR 69
4.4 EHS ISSUES FOR NEW MATERIALS 70
4.4.1 EHS ISSUES FOR SLURRY DISPOSAL, RECYCLING AND RECLAIM 71
4.5 LOGISTIC ISSUES 72
5 CMP SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET 73
5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 74
5.2 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 75
5.3 CMP SLURRY MARKET LEADERS 76
5.3.1 TOTAL SLURRY MARKET SHARE BY REGION 77
5.3.2 TOTAL SLURRY MARKET SHARE 78
5.3.2.1 OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET 79
5.3.2.2 HKMG SLURRY MARKET 80
5.3.2.3 POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET 81
5.3.2.4 OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET 82
5.3.2.5 TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET 83
5.3.2.6 CU BULK SLURRY MARKET 84
5.3.2.7 COPPER BARRIER SLURRY MARKET 85
5.3.2.8 NEW METALS (CO, MO, RU, ETC.) SLURRY MARKET 86
5.3.2.9 CU BACKSIDE POWER SLURRY MARKET 87
5.4 CMP SLURRY M&A ACTIVITY, INVESTMENTS, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND
PARTNERSHIPS 88
5.5 CMP SLURRY PLANT CLOSURES - NONE 89
5.6 NEW ENTRANTS 90
5.7 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK OF
DISCONTINUATIONS 91
5.8 CMP SLURRY PRICING TRENDS 92
5.9 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF CMP SLURRY MARKET 93
6 CMP PAD MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 94
6.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 95
6.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 96
6.2.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 97
6.3 PAD SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 98
6.4 NEW ENTRANTS 99
6.5 CMP PAD LOGISTICS ISSUES, M&A ACTIVITY, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND
PARTNERSHIPS 100
6.6 CMP PAD PRICING TRENDS 101
6.7 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 102
7 MATERIAL SUB-TIER SUPPLY 104
7.1 ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 105
7.2 VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 106
7.3 RAW SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTORS 107
7.4 RAW MATERIALS M&A ACTIVITY 108
7.5 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 109
7.6 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS - NONE 110
7.7 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 111
7.8 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 112
8 SUPPLIER PROFILES 120
3M Company
Abrasive Technology
Ace NanoChem
Anji Micro Shanghai
Asahi Glass
...and 40+ more
9 APPENDIX 377
9.1 BACKSIDE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 378
9.2 CMP OF SILICON CARBIDE 379
9.2.1 SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 380
9.2.2 CMP CHALLENGES IN SILICON CARBIDE 381
9.3 OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY USES 382
9.4 HKMG SLURRY MARKET 383
9.5 POLYSILICON SLURRY FOR MEMS 384
TABLE OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1.1: FORECASTED 2024 MARKET SIZE 10
FIGURE 1.2: CMP CONSUMABLES FORECAST 11
FIGURE 1.3: CMP STEPS FOR ADVANCED DEVICES 12
FIGURE 1.4: 2023 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE 13
FIGURE 1.5: CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE BY APPLICATION 14
FIGURE 1.6: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 15
FIGURE 1.7: CMP PAD REVENUE BY APPLICATION 16
FIGURE 1.8: CMOS TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 17
FIGURE 1.9: 2023 SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 18
FIGURE 1.10: 2023 PAD SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 19
FIGURE 3.1: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2023) 30
FIGURE 3.2: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 31
FIGURE 3.3: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI) 32
FIGURE 3.4: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 33
FIGURE 3.5: GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE UNIT SALES (IN MILLIONS OF UNITS) 35
FIGURE 3.6: ELECTRIFICATION TREND BY WORLD REGION 36
FIGURE 3.7: AUTOMOTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION 37
FIGURE 3.8: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS, WW ESTIMATES 38
FIGURE 3.9: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST 39
FIGURE 3.10: TSMC PHOENIX INVESTMENT ESTIMATED TO BE US $40 B 41
FIGURE 3.11: ESTIMATED GLOBAL FAB SPENDING 2022-2027 42
FIGURE 3.12: FAB EXPANSIONS WITHIN THE US 43
FIGURE 3.13: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS OF THE WORLD 44
FIGURE 3.14: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING (US$ M) AND Y-O-Y CHANGE 45
FIGURE 3.15: ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW 46
FIGURE 3.16: DRAM TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW 47
FIGURE 3.17: 3D NAND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP OVERVIEW 48
FIGURE 3.18: INTEL OHIO PLANT SITE FEB. 2023 AND ARTIST RENDERING
(ON BOTTOM) 49
FIGURE 3.19: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS 52
FIGURE 3.20: TECHCET WORLDWIDE MATERIALS FORECAST ($M USD) 53
FIGURE 4.1: SLURRY AND PAD REVENUE BY HQ REGION 56
FIGURE 4.2: CMP SLURRIES AND PADS REVENUE 59
FIGURE 4.3: CMP STEPS FOR LOGIC NODES 60
FIGURE 4.4: NUMBER OF CMP STEPS FOR MEMORY TECHNOLOGY NODES 62
FIGURE 4.5: 3D NAND ROADMAP BY NODE 63
FIGURE 4.6: STACKING FOR 3D NAND 64
FIGURE 4.7: COMPARISON OF METALS RESISTIVITIES BY DIMENSION 65
FIGURE 4.8: ADV LOGIC TRANSITION TO BACKSIDE POWER 65
FIGURE 4.9: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 66
FIGURE 4.10: KEY TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 67
FIGURE 4.11: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 68
FIGURE 5.1: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 74
FIGURE 5.2: FORECASTED SLURRY VOLUME DEMAND 75
FIGURE 5.3: SLURRY REGIONAL MARKET SHARES IN 2023- $2B 77
FIGURE 5.4: SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES IN 2023- $2B 78
FIGURE 5.5: OXIDE (CERIA) CMP SLURRY 2023 – $399M MARKET SHARE 79
FIGURE 5.6: HKMG/FRONT-END CMP SLURRY 2023 – $67M MARKET SHARE 80
FIGURE 5.7: POLYSILICON CMP SLURRY 2023 – $40M MARKET SHARE 81
FIGURE 5.8: OXIDE (SILICA) CMP SLURRY 2023 - $236M MARKET SHARE 82
FIGURE 5.9: TUNGSTEN CMP SLURRY 2023 - $429M MARKET SHARE 83
FIGURE 5.10: CU-BULK CMP SLURRY 2023 - $302M MARKET SHARE 84
FIGURE 5.11: CU-BARRIER CMP SLURRY 2023 SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE 85
FIGURE 5.12: NEW METALS CMP SLURRY 2023 MARKET SHARE - $3M 86
FIGURE 5.13: CU BACKSIDE POWER CMP SLURRY 2023 MARKET SHARE - $1M 87
FIGURE 6.1: CMP PAD REVENUE FORECAST BY APPLICATION 95
FIGURE 6.2: CMP PAD REVENUE BY WAFER SIZE 96
FIGURE 6.3: FORECASTED QUANTITY PAD USAGE 97
FIGURE 6.4: 2022 PAD SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 98
FIGURE 9.1: LIMITATIONS OF FS-PDN 378
FIGURE 9.2: 2D DEVICE ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION 378
FIGURE 9.3: SILICON CARBIDE-BASED POWER DEVICE 379
FIGURE 9.4: DEFECTS IN SILICON CARBIDE SUBSTRATES AND EPI WAFERS 380
FIGURE 9.5: SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 380
FIGURE 9.6: BATCH POLISH VS. CMP 381
FIGURE 9.7: STI CMP PROCESS 382
FIGURE 9.8: MEMS CMP CROSS SECTION 384
TABLES
TABLE 3.1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES 28
TABLE 3.2: WORLD BANK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (JANUARY 2024) 29
TABLE 3.3: BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLE (BEV) REGIONAL TRENDS 36
TABLE 3.4: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES
MARKET SPENDING 2023 40
TABLE 4.1: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS 57
TABLE 4.2: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS BY SUPPLIER HEADQUARTER REGION 58
TABLE 4.3: SILICON CARBIDE WAFER MANUFACTURERS AND CONSUMABLES
SUPPLIERS 69
TABLE 5.1: 2023 SLURRY MARKET LEADERS AND TAM BY APPLICATION 76
TABLE 7.1: ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 105
TABLE 7.2: VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 106
