Description
This report covers the CMP Consumables market (specifically CMP slurry and pads) and supply-chain for those consumables used in semiconductor device fabrication. The report contains data and analysis from TECHCET’s data base and Sr. Analyst experience, as well as that developed from primary and secondary market research. CMP slurries and pads are a critical in semiconductor manufacturing as process integration requires the fabrication of thin and uniformly flat layers to build up device structures across the semiconductor wafers. The number of CMP process steps continue to increase with each generation of new device technology. New device technology is characterized by more layers, new materials, tighter process control requirements, and new techniques for advanced packaging. These manufacturing challenges require new developments in CMP slurries and pads. This report looks at the market drivers, slurry and pad forecasts by application, market shares, abrasive suppliers, and includes a special focus on advanced packaging.
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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 1.1 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET OVERVIEW 10 1.2 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE TRENDS 11 1.3 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING CMP CONSUMABLES OUTLOOK 12 1.4 YEAR 2022 IN REVIEW 13 1.5 CMP CONSUMABLES FORECASTS BY MATERIAL SEGMENT 14 1.5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 15 1.5.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 16 1.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 17 1.6.1 BACKSIDE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 18 1.7 SLURRY SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 19 1.8 PAD SUPPLIER COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 20 1.9 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 21 1.9.1 ANALYST ASSESSMENT, CONTINUED 22 2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 23 2.1 SCOPE 24 2.2 PURPOSE 25 2.3 METHODOLOGY 26 2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 27 3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 28 3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 29 3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 31 3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 32 3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 33 3.1.4 UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ESPECIALLY FOR 2023 – SLOWER TO NEGATIVE SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED 34 3.2 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT 35 3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 36 3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 37 3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 40 3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 41 3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 42 3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 44 3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 45 3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 46 3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 47 3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 48 3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OVERVIEW 49 3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION SCHEDULES? 50 3.5.2 LOGISTICS ISSUES EASED DOWN 51 3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2027 52 3.5.4 TECHCET’S MATERIAL FORECAST 53 4 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 54 4.1 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 55 4.2 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 56 4.2.1 3D NAND ROADMAP 58 4.2.2 3D NAND STACKING 59 4.2.3 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 60 4.2.4 CMP FOR TSV 62 4.3 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN COMPOUND SEMICONDUCTOR 63 4.3.1 CMP OF SILICON CARBIDE 64 4.3.2 SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 65 4.3.3 CMP CHALLENGES IN SILICON CARBIDE 66 4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS 67 4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 68 4.4.2 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS, CONTINUED 69 4.5 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES 70 4.5.1 EHS ISSUES FOR NEW MATERIALS 71 4.5.2 LOGISTIC ISSUES 72 4.5.3 EHS ISSUES FOR SLURRY DISPOSAL, RECYCLING AND RECLAIM 73 5 CMP SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 74 5.1 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 75 5.2 CMP SLURRIES 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 76 5.3 CMP SLURRY MARKET LEADERS 77 5.3.1 TOTAL SLURRY MARKET SHARE 78 5.3.2 OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET 79 5.3.3 HKMG SLURRY MARKET 81 5.3.4 POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET 83 5.3.5 OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET 85 5.3.6 TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET 86 5.3.7 CU BULK SLURRY MARKET 87 5.3.8 COPPER BARRIER SLURRY MARKET 88 5.3.9 NEW METALS SLURRY MARKET 90 5.3.10 CU BURIED POWER RAIL (BPR) SLURRY MARKET 91 5.4 CMP SLURRY M&A ACTIVITY, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS 92 5.5 CMP SLURRY PLANT CLOSURES 93 5.6 NEW ENTRANTS 94 5.7 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS 95 5.8 CMP SLURRY PRICING TRENDS 96 5.9 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT OF CMP SLURRY MARKET 97 6 CMP PAD MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 98 6.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 99 6.1.1 CMP PADS 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 100 6.2 CMP PADS 5-YEAR FORECAST BY UNITS 101 6.3 CMP PAD PLANT CLOSURES 102 6.4 NEW ENTRANTS 103 6.5 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS 104 6.6 CMP PAD M&A ACTIVITY, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS 105 6.7 CMP PAD PRICING TRENDS 106 6.8 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 107 6.8 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT, CONTINUED 108 7 MATERIAL SUB-TIER SUPPLY 109 7.1 ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 110 7.2 VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 111 7.3 RAW SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTORS 112 7.4 RAW MATERIALS M&A ACTIVITY 113 7.5 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 114 7.6 ABRASIVE SUPPLY CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS 115 7.7 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW 116 7.8 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES 117 7.9 ABRASIVE SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 118 7.10 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 119 8 SUPPLIER PROFILES 120 NANOPHASE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION 3M COMPANY ABRASIVE TECHNOLOGY ACE NANOCHEM ANJI MICRO SHANGHAI ASAHI GLASS ...and 20+ more 9 APPENDIX 329 APPENDIX A: CMP CONSUMABLES OVERVIEW 330 APPENDIX B: TECHNICAL TRENDS IN SIC 332 APPENDIX C: PAD MANUFACTURING COST DRIVERS 338 TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURE1: FORECASTED 2023 MARKET SIZE 10 FIGURE 2: CMP CONSUMABLES FORECAST 11 FIGURE 3: CMP STEPS FOR ADVANCED DEVICES 12 FIGURE 4: 2022 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE 13 FIGURE 5: CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE BY APPLICATION 14 FIGURE 6: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 15 FIGURE 7: CMP PAD REVENUE BY APPLICATION 16 FIGURE 8: CMOS TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 17 FIGURE 9: LIMITATIONS OF FS-PDN 18 FIGURE 10: 2D DEVICE ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION 18 FIGURE 11: 2022 SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 19 FIGURE 12: 2022 PAD SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 20 FIGURE 13: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2022) 31 FIGURE 14: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 32 FIGURE 15: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX (TTSI)* 33 FIGURE 16: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS 34 FIGURE 17: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 35 FIGURE 18: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 36 FIGURE 19: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST 37 FIGURE 20: ELECTRIFICATION TREND BY WORLD REGION 38 FIGURE 21: SEMICONDUCTOR AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION 39 FIGURE 22: TSMC PHOENIX INVESTMENT ESTIMATED WILL BE US $40 B 41 FIGURE 23: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 US$366 B 42 FIGURE 24: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS OF THE WORLD 44 FIGURE 25: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY SEGMENT (US$ B) 45 FIGURE 26: OVERVIEW OF ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 46 FIGURE 27: INTEL OHIO PLANT SITE FEB. 2023 AND ARTIST RENDERING (ON BOTTOM) 47 FIGURE 28: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 50 FIGURE 29: PORT OF LA 51 FIGURE 30: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS** 52 FIGURE 31: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 53 FIGURE 32: CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUE FOR 2022 55 FIGURE 33: NUMBER OF CMP STEPS FOR ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY NODES 56 FIGURE 34: COMPARISON OF METALS RESISTIVITIES BY DIMENSION 57 FIGURE 35: 14NM VS. 7NM METALLIZATION TECHNIQUES 57 FIGURE 36: 3D NAND ROADMAP BY NODE 58 FIGURE 37: STACKING FOR 3D NAND 59 FIGURE 38: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 60 FIGURE 39: KEY TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 61 FIGURE 40: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 62 FIGURE 41: SILICON CARBIDE-BASED POWER DEVICE 64 FIGURE 42: DEFECTS IN SILICON CARBIDE SUBSTRATES AND EPI WAFERS 65 FIGURE 43: SILICON CARBIDE DEFECTS 65 FIGURE 44: BATCH POLISH VS. CMP 66 FIGURE 45: SLURRY AND PAD REVENUE BY HQ REGION 67 FIGURE 46: CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION 75 FIGURE 47: FORECASTED SLURRY VOLUME DEMAND 76 FIGURE 48: SLURRY SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES IN 2022 78 FIGURE 49: OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 79 FIGURE 50: STI CMP PROCESS 80 FIGURE 51: HKMG/FRONT-END SLURRY MARKET SHARES 81 FIGURE 52: POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET SHARES 83 FIGURE 53: MEMS CMP CROSS SECTION 84 FIGURE 54: OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 85 FIGURE 55: TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET SHARES 86 FIGURE 56: CU-BULK SLURRY MARKET SHARES 87 FIGURE 57: CU-BARRIER CMP SLURRY MARKET SHARE 88 FIGURE 58: NEW METALS SLURRY MARKET SHARES 90 FIGURE 59: CU BPR SLURRY MARKET SHARES 91 FIGURE 60: CMP PAD REVENUE BY APPLICATION 99 FIGURE 61: CMP PAD REVENUE BY WAFER SIZE 100 FIGURE 62: FORECASTED PAD USAGE 101 FIGURE 63: CMP FOR IC MANUFACTURING PROCESS 331 FIGURE 64: IC1000 LIKE PAD CROSS-SECTION 340 FIGURE 65: IC1000 SEM CROSS-SECTION 341 TABLES TABLE 1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 29 TABLE 2: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 30 TABLE 3: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES MARKET SPENDING 2022 40 TABLE 4 & 5: SILICON CARBIDE WAFER MANUFACTURERS AND CONSUMABLES SUPPLIERS 63 TABLE 6: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS 68 TABLE 7: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS BY SUPPLIER HEADQUARTER REGION 69 TABLE 8: 2022 SLURRY MARKET LEADERS AND TAM BY APPLICATION 77 TABLE 9: PAD SUPPLIERS 108 TABLE 10: ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 110 TABLE 11: VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SUPPLIERS 111 TABLE 12: PHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL PROPERTY COMPARISON OF SI AND SIC 333
