Impact of Chip Expansion on US Chemical Supply-Chain (Single User License) – NEW!

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Description

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Featured Press Release on US Chemical Supply-Chain Impact Report Highlights:

1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                         11
1.1  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – EXPANSIONS HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT      
     ON WAFER STARTS                                          12
1.2  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – CHEMICAL DEMAND GROW ACCELERATES     13
1.3  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – MATERIALS INCREASES ACROSS 
     THE SPECTRUM                                             14
1.4  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED         15
1.5  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – IMPORT DEPENDENCIES                  16
1.6  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – BY CHEMICAL (NO SIGNIFICANT 
     CHANGE FROM 2022)                                        17
1.7  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – “IMPORT FIRST, BUILD LATER”          18

2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS                              19
2.1  SHRINKING DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING                         20
2.2  GLOBAL MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY                           21
2.3  GLOBAL DYNAMICS IMPACT INDUSTRY OUTLOOK                  22
2.4  MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT                      23
2.5  IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND       24
2.6  WET CHEMICAL DEMAND INCREASE LED BY LOGIC MANUFACTURING  25
2.7  ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE MATERIALS INCREASES               26 
2.8  CURRENT SUPPLIERS – SUPPLY CHAIN CHARACTERISTICS         27
2.8.1  CURRENT SUPPLIERS – MARKET RANKINGS                    28
2.8.2  CURRENT SUPPLIERS – MARKET DYNAMICS                    29
2.8.2  CURRENT SUPPLIERS – MARKET DYNAMICS, CONTINUED         30

3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO                    31
3.1  ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS UPDATE              32
3.2  CHIPS AND SCIENCE ACT OF 2022                            35
3.3  CHIPS ACT PROVISIONS                                     36
3.4  NEW FABS IN THE US                                       37
3.5  US FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY                          38
3.6  US CHIP EXPANSION EFFECT ON CAPACITY                     39
3.7  CHIP EXPANSION CHANGES IN WET CHEMICAL DEMAND            40
3.8  WET CHEMICAL DEMAND – A STRONG MESSAGE TO SUPPLIERS      41

4.0 SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY                                 42
4.1  DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT     43
4.2  SEMICONDUCTOR EXPANSION DRIVES MATERIALS 
     DEMAND GROWTH                                            44
4.3  CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED                             45
4.4  CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING 
     CAPABILITIES & GAP                                       46
4.5  PURITY OVERVIEW                                          47
4.6  DOMESTIC FAB EXPANSION PLANS ACCELERATE                  48
4.7  DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE                       49
4.8  CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS BY 75%                      50
4.9  WET CHEMICAL SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECASTS                     51
4.9.1  SULFURIC ACID (H2SO  ) OUTLOOK                         52
4.9.1.1  US IMPORTS OF UHP H2SO4                              53
4.9.1.2  H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE                            54
4.9.2  ISOPROPYL ALCOHOL (IPA) OUTLOOK                        55
4.9.2.1  US IMPORTS OF UHP IPA                                56
4.9.2.2  IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE                              57
4.9.3  HYDROGEN PEROXIDE (H2O2) OUTLOOK                       58
4.9.3.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H2O2                                59
4.9.3.2  H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE                             60
4.9.4  HYDROCHLORIC ACID (HCL) OUTLOOK                        61
4.9.4.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HCL                                 62
4.9.4.2  HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE                              63
4.9.5  AMMONIUM HYDROXIDE (NH4OH) OUTLOOK                     64
4.9.5.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP NH4OH                               65
4.9.5.2  NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE                            66
4.9.6  HYDROFLUORIC ACID (HF) OUTLOOK                         67
4.9.6.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HF                                  68
4.9.6.2  HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE                               69
4.9.7  PHOSPHORIC ACID (H3PO4) OUTLOOK                        70
4.9.7.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H3PO4                               71
4.9.7.2  H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE                            72
4.9.8  NITRIC ACID (HNO3) OUTLOOK                             73
4.9.8.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HNO3                                74
4.9.8.2  HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE                             75
4.10  KEY SUPPLIERS SUMMARY                                   76

5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS                            77
5.1  ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS                           78
5.2  ANTICIPATED ACTIONS                                      79
5.3  SUPPLIER US PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY                     80
5.4  THE SAMSUNG/TSMC EFFECT                                  83
5.5  COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS                           84

6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS                      87
6.1  US DEPENDENCE ON WET CHEMICAL IMPORTS                    88
6.2  A CHANGING IMPORT PICTURE                                89
6.3  “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION”       91

7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY                                        95
7.1  EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS                          96
7.2  ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY?  97
7.3  CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS                                   98
7.3.1  EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS                    99
7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS                  100

8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES          101
8.1  TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT – GENERAL OBSERVATIONS             102
8.2  TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT – INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS     103
8.3  TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT – SUPPLIER CONCERNS                104

APPENDIX A: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS                      105

FIGURES
FIGURE 1: 2023 US CHIP FAB CAPACITY - 33.9 M WAFERS 

          (200MM EQUIV.)                                      12
FIGURE 2: 2027 US CHIP FAB CAPACITY - 46.4 M WAFERS 

          (200MM EQUIV.)                                      12
FIGURE 3: US ANNUAL WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 2023-2027 

          (200MM EQUIV.)                                      14
FIGURE 4: SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD US EXPORTS                      20
FIGURE 5: US SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IS STRONG, DESPITE 

          LIMITED MANUFACTURING PRESENCE. (REVENUES AS A 
          PERCENT 
OF TOTAL SALES BY HQ LOCATION)             21
FIGURE 6: 2022 GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET 

          BY SEGMENT (US$71.7B)                               23
FIGURE 7: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR 

          2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)                     24
FIGURE 8: US WAFER START CAPACITY FOR LOGIC DEVICES BY 

          NODE, 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)               25
FIGURE 9: US WAFER CAPACITY FOR MEMORY DEVICES BY NODE,   

          2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)                     26
FIGURE 10: SEMICONDUCTOR DEMAND AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL         30
FIGURE 11: INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 

           ($500 B USD)                                       32
FIGURE 12: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2023-2027                       37
FIGURE 13: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW ANNUAL 

           CAPACITY >35% TO 46.4M (200MM EQUIV.)              39
FIGURE 14: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE 75% FROM 

           LEADING CHIP FABS 2023-2027                        41
FIGURE 15: US WAFER START GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE AND NODE      48
FIGURE 16: US 2023 – 2027 US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST     49
FIGURE 17: US H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MKG)            52
FIGURE 18: US H2SO4 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS         53
FIGURE 19: US H2SO4: 71% GROWTH, 11% CAGR                     54
FIGURE 20: US SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MKG)                  55
FIGURE 21: US IPA UHP GRADE – INCREASING DEPENDENCE 

           ON IMPORTS                                         56
FIGURE 22: US IPA VOLUME DEMAND 92% GROWTH 14% CAGR           57
FIGURE 23: US H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)                    58
FIGURE 24: US H2O2 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS          59
FIGURE 25: US H2O2 US VOLUME DEMAND 80% GROWTH 13% CAGR       60
FIGURE 26: US HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)                     61
FIGURE 27: US HCL UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS           62
FIGURE 28: US HCI US DEMAND 70% GROWTH 11% CAGR               63
FIGURE 29: US NH4OH SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)                   64
FIGURE 30 US NH4OH UHP GRADE DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS            65
FIGURE 31: US NH4OH US VOLUME DEMAND 77% GROWTH 
12% CAGR     66
FIGURE 32: US HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)                      67
FIGURE 33: US HF UHP GRADEDEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS               68
FIGURE 34: US HF VOLUME DEMAND 59%  GROWTH, 10% CAGR          69
FIGURE 35: US H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)                   70
FIGURE 36: US H3PO4 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS         71
FIGURE 37: US H3PO4 US VOLUME DEMAND79% GROWTH, 
12% CAGR     72
FIGURE 38: US HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG)                    73
FIGURE 39: US HNO3 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS          74
FIGURE 40: US HNO3 US VOLUME DEMAND 33% GROWTH, 6% CAGR       75
FIGURE 41: RENDERING OF TSMC’S ARIZONA FACILITY               78
FIGURE 42: CHINA TO US OCEAN FREIGHT EXPORT PRICE TRENDS      79
FIGURE 43: SHIP TO CONTROL  FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE    100

TABLES
TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2023-2027                     13
TABLE 2: US WET CHEMICAL EXCESS/SHORTFALLS EXPECTED           15
TABLE 3: DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS 
WITHOUT
         ADDITIONAL DOMESTIC CAPACITY                         16
TABLE 4: US DOMESTIC TIER I TOP 3 SUPPLIERS BY 
         VOLUME SUPPLIED                                      28
TABLE 5: US FAB RAMP FORECAST (200MM EQUIV.)                  38
TABLE 6: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH 

         IN THE US 2027/2023                                  44
TABLE 7: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED (SAME AS TABLE 2)       45
TABLE 8: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS               46
TABLE 9: US SEMICONDUCTOR CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 
2027/2023   50
TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF KEY US SUPPLIERS                         76
TABLE 11: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY, 

          PAGE 1 OF 3                                         80
TABLE 11: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY, 
         
PAGE 2 OF 3                                         81
TABLE 11: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY, 

          PAGE 3 OF 3                                         82
TABLE 12: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS             85
TABLE 12: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS, 

          CONTINUED                                           86
TABLE 13: 2027 IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF UHP AND 

          TOTAL DEMAND                                        89
TABLE 14: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS 
ON IMPORTS   90
TABLE 15: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS                     96
TABLE 16: PURITY REQUIREMENTS                                 99
TABLE 17: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS            109
TABLE 17: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS, 
          CONTINUED                                          110
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