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1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - EXPANSIONS THAT WILL
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WAFER STARTS 12
1.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS UP
TO 56% 13
1.3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE
MATERIALS INCREASES 14
1.4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 15
1.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – IMPORT DEPENDENCIES 16
1.6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – BY CHEMICAL 17
1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY- 7 OF 8 18
1.8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - TECHCET MARKET ASSESSMENT 19
2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS 20
2.1 SHRINKING DOMESTIC MARKETS 21
2.2 GLOBAL MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY 22
2.3 CHANGING CONDITIONS IMPACT INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 23
2.4 MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT 24
2.5 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING CHIP FAB 25
2.6 ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE MATERIALS INCREASES 26
2.7 IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 27
2.8 CURRENT SUPPLIERS – SUPPLY CHAIN CHARACTERISTICS 28
3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO 32
3.1 ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS UPDATE 33
3.2 WITH PASSAGE OF US CHIPS ACT 37
3.3 CHIP ACT CATEGORIES 38
3.4 NEW FABS IN THE US 39
3.5 US FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 40
3.6 CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW 41
3.7 CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW,CONTINUED 42
3.8 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 43
4.0 SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY 44
4.1 DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT
(ESPECIALLY HERE) 45
4.2 EXPANSION DRIVES GROWTH IN MATERIALS DEMAND 46
4.3 CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 47
4.4 CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP 48
4.5 PURITY OVERVIEW 49
4.6 FAB EXPANSIONS PUSH UP DEMAND FOR ALL MATERIALS 50
4.7 DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE 51
4.8 CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS UP TO 40% 52
4.9 WET CHEMICALS SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECASTS 53
4.9.1 SULFURIC ACID – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND, H2SO4 54
4.9.1.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H2SO4 55
4.9.1.2 H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 56
4.9.2 IPA – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND, IPA 57
4.9.2.1 IPA UHP IMPORTS 58
4.9.2.2 IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 59
4.9.3 HYDROGEN PEROXIDE – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 60
4.9.3.1 H2O2 UHP IMPORTS 61
4.9.3.2 H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 62
4.9.4 HCL – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 63
4.9.4.1 HCL UHP IMPORTS 64
4.9.4.2 HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 65
4.9.5 NH4OH – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 66
4.9.5.1 NH4OH UHP IMPORTS 67
4.9.5.2 NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 68
4.9.6 HF – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 69
4.9.6.1 HF IMPORTS 70
4.9.6.2 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 71
4.9.7 H3PO4 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 72
4.9.7.1 H3PO4 UHP & IMPORTS 73
4.9.7.2 H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 74
4.9.8 HNO3 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 75
4.9.8.1 HNO3 IMPORTS 76
4.9.8.2 HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 77
4.10 KEY SUPPLIERS SUMMARY 78
4.11 CHEMICALS’ VOLUMES COMPARISON FOR CONSERVATIVE VS.
FULL
F AB EXPANSIONS IN 2026 79
5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 80
5.1 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 81
5.2 ANTICIPATED ACTIONS 82
5.3 SUPPLIER US PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 83
5.4 THE IMPACT OF TSMC 86
5.5 COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS 87
6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS 90
6.1 US DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS FOR UHP 91
6.2 A GROWING DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED PRODUCTS 92
6.3 “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION” 94
7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY 97
7.1 EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 98
7.2 ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY 99
7.3 CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS 100
7.3.1 EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS 101
7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS 102
8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 103
8.1 GENERAL OBSERVATIONS 104
8.2 INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 105
8.3 SUPPLIERS’ CONCERNS 106
APPENDIX
APPENDIX A: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS 107
APPENDIX B: 2021 INTERVIEW QUOTES 111
APPENDIX C: NEW FAB RAMPING ASSUMPTIONS DEMAND 114
List of Figures
FIGURE 1: 2026 CHIP FAB CAPACITY- 38.6 M/YR 200MM EQUIV. 12
FIGURE 2: US WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 200MM EQUIV.
2022-2026 BY NODE* 14
FIGURE 3: SHARE OF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING 21
FIGURE 4: SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARES AS A PERCENT OF
TOTAL
SALES BY HQ LOCATION 22
FIGURE 5: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT 24
FIGURE 6: US WAFER START CAPACITY FOR LOGIC DEVICES BY NODE,
2022-2026 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)* 25
FIGURE 7: US WAFER CAPACITY FOR MEMORY DEVICES BY NODE,
2022-2026 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)* 26
FIGURE 8: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR
2022-2026
(200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 27
FIGURE 9: SULFURIC ACID 31
FIGURE 10: INVESTMENT IN CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026 33
FIGURE 11: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026 39
FIGURE 12: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW 41
FIGURE 13: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >50% FROM LEADING
CHIP
FABS 2022-2026 43
FIGURE 14: US CHIP EXPANSION GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE AND NODE* 50
FIGURE 15: 2022–2026 VOLUME DEMAND BASED ON CHIP FAB CAPACITY 51
FIGURE 16: US H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MILLIONS KG) 54
FIGURE 17: H2SO4 UHP GRADE –DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS 55
FIGURE 18: H2SO4 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 56
FIGURE 19: SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MILLIONS KG) 57
FIGURE 20: IPA UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH I
NCREASE
TO MEET DEMAND 58
FIGURE 21: US IPA 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 59
FIGURE 22: H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG) 60
FIGURE 23: H2O2 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS 61
FIGURE 24: H2O2 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 62
FIGURE 25: HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG) 63
FIGURE 26: HCL UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS
(IMPORTS
GROW IN ORDER TO MEET DEMAND) 64
FIGURE 27: HCI US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 65
FIGURE 28: NH4OH SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG) 66
FIGURE 29: NH4OH UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH
GROW
TO MEET DEMAND 67
FIGURE 30: NH4OH US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 68
FIGURE 31: HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG) 69
FIGURE 32: HF UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH GROW
IN
ORDER TO MEET DEMAND 70
FIGURE 33: HF US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 71
FIGURE 34: H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG) 72
FIGURE 35: H3PO4 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS 73
FIGURE 36: H3PO4 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 74
FIGURE 37: HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG) 75
FIGURE 38: HNO3 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS 76
FIGURE 39: HNO3 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR 77
FIGURE 40: ARTIST RENDERING OF TSMC’S ARIZONA FACILITY,
SCHEDULED TO START OPERATIONS IN 2024 81
FIGURE 41: SUPPLY-CHAIN LOGISTICS CHALLENGES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FROM PANDEMIC AND ESCALATING DEMAND
(LOS ANGELES,
CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW) 90
FIGURE 42: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS INTO THE US IS
FEASIBLE BUT IT’S NOT EASY AND INCLUDES
MULTIPLE STEPS: 94
FIGURE 43: CHINA TO US OCEAN FREIGHT EXPORT PRICE TRENDS 95
FIGURE 44: SHIP TO CONTROL FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE 102
List of Tables
TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2022-2026 13
TABLE 2: US WET CHEMICAL SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 15
TABLE 3: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON
IMPORTS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL LOCAL CAPACITY 16
TABLE 4: SUPPLY-CHAIN CHALLENGES WILL ESCALATE AS CHEMICAL
DEMAND INCREASES 19
TABLE 5: US DOMESTIC TIER I TOP 3 SUPPLIERS BY VOLUME SUPPLIED 29
TABLE 6: KEY PROVISIONS OF THE AMERICAN FOUNDRIES ACT 36
TABLE 7: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026 40
TABLE 8: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE
US 2026/2022 46
TABLE 9: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED (SAME AS TABLE 2) 47
TABLE 10: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS 48
TABLE 11: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2022-2026 52
TABLE 12: SUMMARY OF KEY US TIER 2 AND TIER 1 SUPPLIERS* 78
TABLE 13: INCREASED CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND FROM 2022 79
TABLE 14: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 83
TABLE 14: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 84
TABLE 14: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 85
TABLE 15: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS 88
TABLE 15: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS,
CONTINUED 89
TABLE 16: IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL AND UHP TOTAL 92
TABLE 17: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS
2022 VS. 2026 (SAME AS TABLE 3) 93
TAB;E 18: IMPACT OF OCEAN FREIGHT ON CHEMICAL PRICE EXAMPLE 96
TABLE 19: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 98
TABLE 20: PURITY REQUIREMENTS 101
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