Impact of Chip Expansions on US Chemical Supply-Chains

• Provides focused information on US wet chemical demand vs. supply including volumes, revenues, wafer start demand and ranking of leading US chip fabricators.
• Who should get this report? Business Development Managers, Supply-Chain Managers, Financial Investment/Advisors, anyone interested in understanding the dynamic of the US Semiconductor Supply-Chains that support chip manufacturing.

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Description

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[If you are only interested the US Chip Expansion portion of this report please contact us by clicking here.]

 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                11

1.1  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - EXPANSIONS THAT WILL   
       
     HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WAFER STARTS                          12
1.2  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  - CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS UP 
       
     TO 56%                                                       13
1.3  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE   
       
     MATERIALS INCREASES                                          14
1.4  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED             15
1.5  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – IMPORT DEPENDENCIES                      16
1.6  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – BY CHEMICAL                              17
1.7  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY- 7 OF 8                                    18
1.8  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - TECHCET MARKET ASSESSMENT                19

2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS            20 
2.1  SHRINKING DOMESTIC MARKETS                                   21
2.2  GLOBAL MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY                               22
2.3  CHANGING CONDITIONS IMPACT INDUSTRY OUTLOOK                  23
2.4  MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT                          24
2.5  WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING  CHIP FAB    25
2.6  ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE MATERIALS INCREASES                   26
2.7  IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND           27
2.8  CURRENT SUPPLIERS – SUPPLY CHAIN CHARACTERISTICS             28

3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO  32
3.1  ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS UPDATE                  33
3.2  WITH PASSAGE OF US CHIPS ACT                                 37
3.3  CHIP ACT CATEGORIES                                          38
3.4  NEW FABS IN THE US                                           39
3.5  US FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY                              40
3.6  CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW                              41
3.7  CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW,CONTINUED                    42
3.8  WET CHEMICAL DEMAND                                          43
 
4.0 SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY               44
4.1  DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT 
 
     (ESPECIALLY HERE)                                            45
4.2  EXPANSION DRIVES GROWTH IN MATERIALS DEMAND                  46
4.3  CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED                                 47
4.4  CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP   48
4.5  PURITY OVERVIEW                                              49
4.6  FAB EXPANSIONS PUSH UP DEMAND FOR ALL MATERIALS              50
4.7  DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE                           51
4.8  CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS UP TO 40%                       52
4.9  WET CHEMICALS SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECASTS                        53
4.9.1  SULFURIC ACID  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND, H2SO4                54
4.9.1.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H2SO4                                   55
4.9.1.2 H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                        56
4.9.2  IPA  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND, IPA                            57
4.9.2.1 IPA UHP IMPORTS                                           58
4.9.2.2 IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                          59
4.9.3  HYDROGEN PEROXIDE  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND                   60
4.9.3.1 H2O2 UHP IMPORTS                                          61
4.9.3.2  H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                        62
4.9.4  HCL  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND                                 63
4.9.4.1 HCL UHP IMPORTS                                           64
4.9.4.2  HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                         65
4.9.5  NH4OH  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND                               66
4.9.5.1 NH4OH UHP IMPORTS                                         67
4.9.5.2  NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                       68
4.9.6  HF  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND                                  69
4.9.6.1 HF IMPORTS                                                70
4.9.6.2  HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                          71
4.9.7  H3PO4  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND                               72
4.9.7.1 H3PO4 UHP & IMPORTS                                       73
4.9.7.2  H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                       74
4.9.8  HNO3  – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND                                75
4.9.8.1 HNO3 IMPORTS                                              76
4.9.8.2  HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW                        77
4.10  KEY SUPPLIERS SUMMARY                                       78
4.11  CHEMICALS’ VOLUMES COMPARISON FOR CONSERVATIVE VS. 
FULL 
     F AB EXPANSIONS IN 2026                                      79

5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS          80
5.1  ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS                               81
5.2  ANTICIPATED ACTIONS                                          82
5.3  SUPPLIER US PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY                         83
5.4  THE IMPACT OF TSMC                                           86
5.5  COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS                               87

6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS    90
6.1  US DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS FOR UHP                             91
6.2  A GROWING DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED PRODUCTS                    92
6.3  “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION”           94

7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY                      97
7.1  EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS                              98
7.2  ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY       99
7.3  CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS                                       100
7.3.1  EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS                        101
7.4  SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS                      102

8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES  103
8.1  GENERAL OBSERVATIONS                                         104
8.2  INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS                                 105
8.3  SUPPLIERS’ CONCERNS                                          106

APPENDIX
APPENDIX A: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS                           107
APPENDIX B: 2021 INTERVIEW QUOTES                                 111
APPENDIX C: NEW FAB RAMPING ASSUMPTIONS DEMAND                    114

List of Figures
FIGURE 1: 2026 CHIP FAB CAPACITY- 38.6 M/YR 200MM EQUIV.          12
FIGURE 2: US WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 200MM EQUIV. 

          2022-2026 BY NODE*                                      14
FIGURE 3: SHARE OF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING             21 
FIGURE 4: SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET SHARES AS A PERCENT OF
 TOTAL 
          SALES BY HQ LOCATION                                    22
FIGURE 5: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT          24
FIGURE 6: US WAFER START CAPACITY FOR LOGIC DEVICES BY NODE, 

          2022-2026 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)*                        25
FIGURE 7: US WAFER CAPACITY FOR MEMORY DEVICES BY NODE,
          2022-2026 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)*                        26
FIGURE 8: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR 
2022-2026 
          (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)                                   27
FIGURE 9: SULFURIC ACID                                           31
FIGURE 10: INVESTMENT IN CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026                33
FIGURE 11: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026                           39
FIGURE 12: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW                        41    
FIGURE 13: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >50% FROM LEADING
CHIP 
           FABS 2022-2026                                         43
FIGURE 14: US CHIP EXPANSION GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE AND NODE*      50
FIGURE 15: 2022–2026 VOLUME DEMAND BASED ON CHIP FAB CAPACITY     51
FIGURE 16: US H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MILLIONS KG)        54
FIGURE 17: H2SO4 UHP GRADE –DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS                 55
FIGURE 18: H2SO4 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                   56
FIGURE 19: SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MILLIONS KG)                 57
FIGURE 20: IPA UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH I
NCREASE 
           TO MEET DEMAND                                         58
FIGURE 21: US IPA 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                  59
FIGURE 22: H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)                   60
FIGURE 23: H2O2 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS                 61
FIGURE 24: H2O2 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                 62
FIGURE 25: HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)                    63
FIGURE 26: HCL UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS 
           (IMPORTS 
GROW IN ORDER TO MEET DEMAND)                 64
FIGURE 27: HCI US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                  65  
FIGURE 28: NH4OH SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)                  66
FIGURE 29: NH4OH UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH 
GROW 
           TO MEET DEMAND                                         67
FIGURE 30: NH4OH US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                68
FIGURE 31: HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)                     69
FIGURE 32: HF UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS WHICH GROW 
IN 
           ORDER TO MEET DEMAND                                   70
FIGURE 33: HF US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                   71
FIGURE 34: H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)                  72
FIGURE 35: H3PO4 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS                73
FIGURE 36: H3PO4 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                74
FIGURE 37: HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MILLIONS KG)                   75
FIGURE 38: HNO3 UHP GRADE - DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS                 76
FIGURE 39: HNO3 US 2022-2026 VOLUME GROWTH & CAGR                 77
FIGURE 40: ARTIST RENDERING OF TSMC’S ARIZONA FACILITY, 

           SCHEDULED TO START OPERATIONS IN 2024                  81
FIGURE 41: SUPPLY-CHAIN  LOGISTICS CHALLENGES EXPECTED TO 

           PERSIST FROM PANDEMIC AND ESCALATING DEMAND 
           (LOS ANGELES, 
CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW)                    90
FIGURE 42: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS INTO THE US IS 

           FEASIBLE BUT IT’S NOT EASY AND INCLUDES 
           MULTIPLE STEPS:                                        94
FIGURE 43: CHINA TO US OCEAN FREIGHT EXPORT PRICE TRENDS          95
FIGURE 44: SHIP TO CONTROL  FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE         102

List of Tables
TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2022-2026                         13
TABLE 2: US WET CHEMICAL SHORTFALLS EXPECTED                      15
TABLE 3: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON  
 
         IMPORTS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL LOCAL CAPACITY                16
TABLE 4: SUPPLY-CHAIN CHALLENGES WILL ESCALATE AS CHEMICAL 

         DEMAND INCREASES                                         19
TABLE 5: US DOMESTIC TIER I TOP 3 SUPPLIERS BY VOLUME SUPPLIED    29
TABLE 6: KEY PROVISIONS OF THE AMERICAN FOUNDRIES ACT             36
TABLE 7: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026                             40
TABLE 8: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE 

         US 2026/2022                                             46
TABLE 9: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED (SAME AS TABLE 2)           47
TABLE 10: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS                  48
TABLE 11: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2022-2026                        52
TABLE 12: SUMMARY OF KEY US TIER 2 AND TIER 1 SUPPLIERS*          78
TABLE 13: INCREASED CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND FROM 2022              79
TABLE 14: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY           83
TABLE 14: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY           84
TABLE 14: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY           85
TABLE 15: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS       88
TABLE 15: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS, 

          CONTINUED                                               89
TABLE 16: IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL AND UHP TOTAL          92
TABLE 17: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS 
          
2022 VS. 2026 (SAME AS TABLE 3)                         93
TAB;E 18: IMPACT OF OCEAN FREIGHT ON CHEMICAL PRICE EXAMPLE       96
TABLE 19: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS                         98
TABLE 20: PURITY REQUIREMENTS                                     101

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