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1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OF 8 7 1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OF 8 8 1.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 OF 8 9 1.3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 OF 8 10 1.4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 OF 8 11 1.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 OF 8 12 1.6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 OF 8 13 1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 OF 8 14 1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - TECHCET MARKET ASSESSMENT 15 2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS 16 2.1 SHRINKING DOMESTIC MARKETS 17 2.2 MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT 18 2.3 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING CHIP FAB 19 2.5 IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 20 2.5 CURRENT SUPPLIERS - GENERAL COMMENTS 21 2.6 AN OVERVIEW 24 3 3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO 26 3.1 ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS 27 3.2 MAJOR US ANNOUNCED FAB EXPANSIONS 29 3.3 CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW 30 3.4 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 32 4.0 SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY 33 4.1 DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT 34 4.2 EXPANSION DRIVES GROWTH IN MATERIALS DEMAND 35 4.3 CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 36 4.4 CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP 37 4.5 FAB EXPANSIONS PUSH UP DEMAND FOR ALL MATERIALS 38 4.6 DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE 39 4.7 WET CHEMICALS SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECASTS 40 4.7.1 SULFURIC ACID – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 41 4.7.1.1 H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 42 4.7.2 IPA – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 43 4.7.2.1 IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 44 4.7.3 HYDROGEN PEROXIDE – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 45 4.7.3.1 H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 46 4.7.4 HCL – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 47 4.7.4.1 HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 48 4.7.5 NH4OH – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 49 4.7.5.1 NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 50 4.7.6 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 51 4.7.6.1 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 52 4.7.7 H3PO4 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 53 4.7.7.1 H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 54 4.7.8 HNO3 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND 55 4.7.8.1 HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW 56 4.8 KEY TIER II SUPPLIERS SUMMARY 57 5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 58 5.1 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 59 5.2 ANTICIPATED ACTINS 60 5.3 ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS 61 5.4 THE IMPACT OF TSMC 63 5.6 COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS 64 6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS 67 6.1 US DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS FOR UHP 68 6.2 A GROWING DEPENDENCY IN IMPORTED PRODUCTS 69 6.3 “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION” 71 6.4 AN ADDITIONAL BUT IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION 73 7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY 74 7.1 EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 75 7.2 ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY 76 7.3 CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS 77 7.3.1 EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS 78 7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS 79 8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 80 8.1 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 81 9.0 APPENDIX: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS 84 APPENDIX 9.1 85 APPENDIX 9.2 86 APPENDIX 9.3 87 List of Figures FIGURE 1: 2025 CHIP FAB CAPACITY- 36M/YR 9 FIGURE 2: US WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 2020-2025 BY NODE 11 FIGURE 3: SUPPLY-CHAIN CHALLENGES WILL ESCALATE AS CHEMICAL DEMAND INCREASES (LOS ANGELES, CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW) 15 FIGURE 4: SHARE OF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING 17 FIGURE 5: 2020 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT 18 FIGURE 6: US WAFER STARTS ESTIMATE BY DEVICES TYPE AND NODE, 2020-2025 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 19 FIGURE 7: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR 2020-2025 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 20 FIGURE 8: SULFURIC ACID 24 FIGURE 9: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW >40% TO 37M 200MM EQUIVALENT WAFER CAPACITY (17M 300MM) 30 FIGURE 10: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING CHIP FABS, 2020-2025 32 FIGURE 11: CHIP EXPANSION GROWTH 38 FIGURE 12: H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (METRIC TONS) 41 FIGURE 13: HSO4 US VOLUME DEMAND 37% ’25/’21 ; 6% CAGR 42 FIGURE 14: IPA SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (METRIC TONS) 43 FIGURE 15: IPA US VOLUME DEMAND 35% GROWTH 6% CAGR 44 FIGURE 16: H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 45 FIGURE 17: H2O2 US VOLUME DEMAND 42% GROWTH 7% CAGR 46 FIGURE 18: HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 47 FIGURE 19: HCI US VOLUME DEMAND 47% GROWTH 8% CAGR 48 FIGURE 20: H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 49 FIGURE 21: NH4OH US VOLUME DEMAND 43% GROWTH 7% CAGR 50 FIGURE 22: HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 49 FIGURE 23: HF US VOLUME DEMAND 23% GROWTH, 4% CAGR 52 FIGURE 24: H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 53 FIGURE 25: H3PO4 US VOLUME DEMAND 23% GROWTH, 4% CAGR 54 FIGURE 26: HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 55 FIGURE 27: HNO3 US VOLUME DEMAND 13% GROWTH, 3% CAGR 56 FIGURE 28: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS INTO THE US IS FEASIBLE BUT IT’S NOT EASY AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE STEPS 68 FIGURE 29: SUPPLY-CHAIN LOGISTICS CHALLENGES PERSIST TODAY (LOS ANGELES, CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW) 74 FIGURE 30: SHIP TO CONTROL FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE 78 List of Tables TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2020-2025 10 TABLE 2: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 12 TABLE 3: US DOMESTIC TIER I SUPPLIERS 22 TABLE 4: KEY PROVISIONS OF THE AMERICAN FOUNDRIES ACT 28 TABLE 5: MAJOR US ANNOUNCED FAB EXPANSIONS 29 TABLE 6: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE US 2025/2020 35 TABLE 7: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 36 TABLE 8: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS 37 TABLE 9: 2020 – 2025 CHANGE IN VOLUMES REQUIRED FOR US CHIP PRODUCTION 39 TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF KEY US TIER 2 AND TIER 1 SUPPLIERS* 57 TABLE 11: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS 61 TABLE 12: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS 65 TABLE 13: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS ASSUMPTION 69 TABLE 14: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 70 TABLE 15: ALL BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS AND REQUIREMENTS IMPORTED 75 TABLE 16: PURITY REQUIREMENTS 76
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