Impact of Chip Expansion on US Chemical Supply-Chain – NEW

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• Provides focused information on US wet chemical demand vs. supply including volumes, revenues, wafer start demand and ranking of leading US chip fabricators.
• Who should get this report? Business Development Managers, Supply-Chain Managers, Financial Investment/Advisors, anyone interested in understanding the dynamic of the US Semiconductor Supply-Chains that support chip manufacturing.

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Description

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1.0  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OF 8	7
 1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 OF 8			                  8
 1.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 OF 8			                  9
 1.3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 OF 8			                  10
 1.4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 OF 8		 	                  11
 1.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 OF 8			                  12
 1.6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 OF 8			                  13
 1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 OF 8			                  14
 1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - TECHCET MARKET ASSESSMENT		  15
2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS	16 
 2.1 SHRINKING DOMESTIC MARKETS			                  17
 2.2 MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT			  18
 2.3 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING CHIP FAB     19
 2.5 IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND	          20
 2.5 CURRENT SUPPLIERS - GENERAL COMMENTS		          21
 2.6 AN OVERVIEW  				                  24
3 3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO	26
 3.1 ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS		          27
 3.2 MAJOR US ANNOUNCED FAB EXPANSIONS		                  29
 3.3 CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW 			          30
 3.4 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 				          32 
4.0  SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY	 33
 4.1 DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT	  34
 4.2 EXPANSION DRIVES GROWTH IN MATERIALS DEMAND		  35
 4.3 CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED			          36
 4.4 CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP   37
 4.5 FAB EXPANSIONS PUSH UP DEMAND FOR ALL MATERIALS		  38
 4.6 DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE		                  39
 4.7 WET CHEMICALS SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECASTS		          40
 4.7.1 SULFURIC ACID – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND		          41
 4.7.1.1 H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          42
 4.7.2 IPA – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND			          43
 4.7.2.1 IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          44
 4.7.3 HYDROGEN PEROXIDE – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND		          45
 4.7.3.1 H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          46
 4.7.4 HCL – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND			          47
 4.7.4.1 HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          48
 4.7.5 NH4OH – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND			          49
 4.7.5.1 NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          50
 4.7.6 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW			          51
 4.7.6.1 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          52
 4.7.7 H3PO4 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND			          53
 4.7.7.1 H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          54
 4.7.8 HNO3 – US SUPPLY V. DEMAND			          55
 4.7.8.1 HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW		          56
 4.8 KEY TIER II SUPPLIERS SUMMARY 			          57
5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS	58
 5.1 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS			          59
 5.2 ANTICIPATED ACTINS				                  60
 5.3 ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS	          61
 5.4 THE IMPACT OF TSMC				                  63
 5.6 COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS			          64
6.0  DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS	67
 6.1 US DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS FOR UHP			          68
 6.2 A GROWING DEPENDENCY IN IMPORTED PRODUCTS		          69
 6.3 “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION”  	  71
 6.4 AN ADDITIONAL BUT IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION		          73
7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY		74
 7.1 EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS			          75
 7.2 ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY	  76
 7.3 CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS				          77
 7.3.1 EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS		          78
 7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS		          79
8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES	80
 8.1 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES				          81
9.0 APPENDIX: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS	84
 APPENDIX 9.1					                  85
 APPENDIX 9.2					                  86
 APPENDIX 9.3					                  87
List of Figures
FIGURE 1: 2025 CHIP FAB CAPACITY- 36M/YR			  9
FIGURE 2: US WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 2020-2025 BY NODE	          11
FIGURE 3: SUPPLY-CHAIN CHALLENGES WILL ESCALATE AS CHEMICAL 
          DEMAND INCREASES (LOS ANGELES, CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW)    15
FIGURE 4: SHARE OF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING	          17
FIGURE 5: 2020 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT 	  18
FIGURE 6: US WAFER STARTS ESTIMATE BY DEVICES TYPE AND NODE,
          2020-2025 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)			  19
FIGURE 7: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR 
          2020-2025 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS)			  20
FIGURE 8: SULFURIC ACID				                  24
FIGURE 9: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW >40% TO 37M 200MM
          EQUIVALENT WAFER CAPACITY (17M 300MM)			  30
FIGURE 10: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE >40% FROM LEADING 
           CHIP FABS, 2020-2025				          32
FIGURE 11: CHIP EXPANSION GROWTH			          38
FIGURE 12: H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (METRIC TONS)       	  41
FIGURE 13: HSO4 US VOLUME DEMAND 37% ’25/’21 ; 6% CAGR	          42
FIGURE 14: IPA SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (METRIC TONS)    	  43
FIGURE 15: IPA US VOLUME DEMAND 35% GROWTH 6% CAGR	          44 
FIGURE 16: H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS) 		  45
FIGURE 17: H2O2 US VOLUME DEMAND 42% GROWTH 7% CAGR 	          46
FIGURE 18: HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS)		          47
FIGURE 19: HCI US VOLUME DEMAND 47% GROWTH 8% CAGR 	          48
FIGURE 20: H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS)		  49
FIGURE 21: NH4OH US VOLUME DEMAND 43% GROWTH 7% CAGR	          50
FIGURE 22: HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS)		          49
FIGURE 23: HF US VOLUME DEMAND 23% GROWTH, 4% CAGR	          52
FIGURE 24: H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS)		  53
FIGURE 25: H3PO4 US VOLUME DEMAND 23% GROWTH, 4% CAGR	          54
FIGURE 26: HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (METRIC TONS)		          55
FIGURE 27: HNO3 US VOLUME DEMAND 13% GROWTH, 3% CAGR	          56
FIGURE 28: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS INTO THE US IS 
           FEASIBLE BUT IT’S NOT EASY AND INCLUDES MULTIPLE STEPS 68
FIGURE 29: SUPPLY-CHAIN  LOGISTICS CHALLENGES PERSIST TODAY 
           (LOS ANGELES, CA, 4/16/2021, BELOW)			  74
FIGURE 30: SHIP TO CONTROL  FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE	  78
List of Tables
TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2020-2025		          10
TABLE 2: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED			          12
TABLE 3: US DOMESTIC TIER I SUPPLIERS			          22
TABLE 4: KEY PROVISIONS OF THE AMERICAN FOUNDRIES ACT	          28
TABLE 5: MAJOR US ANNOUNCED FAB EXPANSIONS		          29
TABLE 6: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN 
         THE US 2025/2020				          35
TABLE 7: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED			          36
TABLE 8: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS		          37
TABLE 9: 2020 – 2025 CHANGE IN VOLUMES REQUIRED FOR US CHIP 
         PRODUCTION					          39
TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF KEY US TIER 2 AND TIER 1 SUPPLIERS*	  57
TABLE 11: ANTICIPATED ACTIONS BY CURRENT DOMESTIC SUPPLIERS	  61
TABLE 12: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS		  65
TABLE 13: IMPORTING BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS ASSUMPTION	          69
TABLE 14: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS		          70
TABLE 15: ALL BULK PROCESS CHEMICALS AND REQUIREMENTS IMPORTED	  75
TABLE 16: PURITY REQUIREMENTS			                  76

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