Description
Market Research & Supply-Chain Analysis Report on Sputter Targets used for Semiconductor Device Manufacturing
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9
1.1 TARGET BUSINESS – MARKET OVERVIEW 10
1.2 TARGET MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING 2022 OUTLOOK 11
1.3 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 12
1.4 TARGET MARKET FORECAST 14
1.4.1 ESTIMATE FOR PRECIOUS METAL TARGET MARKET 15
1.5 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 16
1.6 EHS ISSUES/CONCERNS 17
1.7 TARGET MARKET ASSESSMENT 18
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 20
2.1 PURPOSE 21
2.2 METHODOLOGY 22
2.3 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 23
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 24
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 25
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 27
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 28
3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 29
3.1.4 UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ESPECIALLY FOR 2023 - SLOWER TO
NEGATIVE SEMI REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED 30
3.2 ELECTRONIC GOODS MARKET 31
3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 32
3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 33
3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 35
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 37
3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 38
3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 39
3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 40
3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 41
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 42
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 43
3.4.1 POLICY AND TRADE ISSUES 44
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 45
3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION
SCHEDULES? 46
3.5.2 CONTINUED LOGISTICS ISSUES PLAGUE THE WESTERN WORLD 47
3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2026 48
3.5.4 TECHCET’S MATERIAL FORECAST 50
4 SPUTTERING TARGET TRENDS 51
4.1 CY2022 MARKET ASSESSMENT 52
4.2 2021 TARGET MARKET REVENUE ESTIMATE 53
4.3 2021 TARGET MARKET SPLIT BY DEVICE TYPE / NODE 54
4.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN STATUS & TRENDS FOR 2022 55
4.5 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 56
4.5.1 GENERAL PROCESS FLOW LOGIC PVD 10NM & BELOW 57
4.5.2 GENERAL PROCESS FLOW ADVANCED DRAM 58
4.5.3 LEADING EDGE DEVICE ARCHITECTURE 59
4.5.4 300 MM TARGET MARKET SEGMENT DRIVERS DEVICES 60
4.5.5 200 MM TARGET MARKET SEGMENT DRIVERS 62
4.5.6 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE TECHNOLOGY OR MARKETS:
UNIVERSITY AND SUPPLIER R&D IN 5-7 YEARS 63
4.5.7 EMERGING MEMORY MATERIALS 65
4.5.8 CHALCOGENIDE PVD TARGETS 68
4.5.9 PIEZOELECTRIC MATERIALS – PZT 69
4.6 COMMENT ON REGIONAL TRENDS/DRIVERS 72
4.6.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND ISSUES 73
4.6.2 SPUTTERING TARGET PRODUCTION LOCATIONS– REGIONAL
TRENDS 74
4.6.3 REGIONAL MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 75
4.7 METAL TARGET COST STRUCTURE 76
4.7.1 ESTIMATED TARGET COST STRUCTURE OVERVIEW 77
4.8 EHS, REGULATIONS, AND LOGISTIC ISSUES 78
4.8.1 LOGISTIC ISSUES 79
4.8.2 EHS ISSUES 80
5 SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 81
5.1 MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 82
5.1.1 TARGET MARKET FORECAST 83
5.1.2 SPUTTER TARGET FORECAST METHODOLOGY 84
5.1.3 2022 TARGET MARKET SIZE BY TYPE 85
5.1.4 ESTIMATE FOR PRECIOUS METAL TARGET MARKET 86
5.1.5 TOTAL SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET FORECAST 87
5.1.6 COPPER MARKET FORECAST 88
5.1.7 TANTALUM MARKET FORECAST 90
5.1.8 ALUMINUM MARKET FORECAST 91
5.1.9 TITANIUM MARKET FORECAST 92
5.2 SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE AND ACTIVITY 93
5.2.1 ESTIMATED 2021 MARKET SHARE 94
5.2.2 TARGET SUPPLIER UPDATES – 1 OF 3 95
5.2.3 EMERGING MEMORY TARGETS MATERIAL SUPPLIERS 98
5.2.4 RUTHENIUM TARGET SUPPLIERS 99
5.3 M&A ACTIVITY AND PARTNERSHIPS 100
5.4 PLANT CLOSURES - NONE 101
5.5 NEW ENTRANTS - NONE 102
5.6 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK OF
DISCONTINUATION 103
5.7 RISKS & DISCONTINUATIONS 104
5.8 ASSESSMENT OF TARGET SUPPLIERS AND MARKET 105
6 TECHNICAL DRIVERS/MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 102
6.1 SUB TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: SOURCES & MARKETS 108
6.1.1 COPPER (CU) METAL- RAW MATERIAL 109
6.1.2 TANTALUM (TA)- RAW MATERIAL 112
6.1.3 ALUMINUM (AL) METAL- BAUXITE AND ALUMINA MINING 117
6.1.4 TITANIUM (TI) METAL- TI MINERAL CONCENTRATE 120
6.1.5 TUNGSTEN (W) METAL- MINING 128
6.1.6 COBALT (CO) METAL- MINING 132
6.1.7 MOLYBDENUM (MO) METAL- MINING 136
6.1.8 PRECIOUS METALS- GOLD (AU) MINING PRODUCTION 139
6.1.9 HIGH-PURITY MANGANESE (MN) 144
6.1.10 RARE EARTH SUPPLY NEWS 145
6.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS 149
6.2.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTIONS 150
6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 151
6.3.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 152
6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 153
6.4.1 CU METAL PRICING 154
6.4.2 TANTALUM METAL PRICING 155
6.4.3 AL METAL PRICING 156
6.4.4 TI SPONGE PRICING 157
6.4.5 CO METAL PRICING 158
6.4.6 W METAL PRICING 159
6.4.7 MO METAL PRICING 160
6.4.8 PRECIOUS METAL PRICING 161
6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 164
6.5.1 SPUTTER TARGETS SUB-TIER MARKET ASSESSMENT 165
7 SUPPLIER PROFILES 167
Furuya Metal Co. Ltd.
GO Element Corp
Grikin
Honeywell Electronic Materials
JX NIPPON
...and many more
TABLE OF FIGURES
FIGURE1: TOTAL SPUTTER TARGET REVENUE HISTORY
AND FORECAST ESTIMATES 10
FIGURE 2: SPUTTER TARGET (NON-PRECIOUS METALS)
REVENUE HISTORY AND FORECAST ESTIMATES 14
FIGURE 3: PRECIOUS METALS SPUTTER TARGET REVENUE
HISTORY AND FORECAST ESTIMATES 15
FIGURE 4: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS
SUPPLY CHAIN (2021) 27
FIGURE 5: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 28
FIGURE 6: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX*. 29
FIGURE 7: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE
GROWTH FORECASTS 30
FIGURE 8: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE
GROWTH FORECASTS 30
FIGURE 9: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 31
FIGURE 10: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 32
FIGURE 11: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST, 2021, Q3 33
FIGURE 12: GLOBAL EV TRENDS 34
FIGURE 13: SEMICONDUCTOR SPEND PER VEHICLE TYPE 35
FIGURE 14: TSMC CONSTRUCTION SITE IN ARIZONA. 37
FIGURE 15: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026 > US$460 B 38
FIGURE 16: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS
OF THE WORLD 39
FIGURE 17: 3-MONTH AVERAGE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT
BILLINGS 40
FIGURE 18: OVERVIEW OF DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 41
FIGURE 19: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 46
FIGURE 20: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE 48
FIGURE 21: TECHCET MATERIALS FORECAST 50
FIGURE 22: SPUTTERING TARGET (NON-PRECIOUS METALS)
2022 REVENUE HISTORY & FORECAST ESTIMATES 53
FIGURE 23: 2022F SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET BY DEVICE
TYPE/NODE 54
FIGURE 24: EXAMPLES OF COBALT APPLICATIONS IN LOGIC
DEVICES 57
FIGURE 25: DRAM CAPACITOR 58
FIGURE 26: IMEC 2021 LOGIC ROADMAP 59
FIGURE 27: DAMASCENE SCHEMATIC 61
FIGURE 28: SC CONTENT IN AL VS. PIEZOELECTRIC
RESPONSE 71
FIGURE 29: REGIONAL SHARE
(AS A % OF TOTAL TARGET DEMAND BY USD) 72
FIGURE 30: SPUTTER TARGET (NON-PRECIOUS METALS)
REVENUE HISTORY AND FORECAST ESTIMATES 83
FIGURE 31: ESTIMATED 2022 SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET SIZE
BY MATERIAL SEGMENT (IN US$ MILLIONS) 85
FIGURE 32: PRECIOUS METALS SPUTTER TARGET REVENUE HISTORY
AND FORECAST ESTIMATES 86
FIGURE 33: TOTAL SPUTTER TARGET REVENUE HISTORY
AND FORECAST ESTIMATES 87
FIGURE 34: SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET FORECAST 88
FIGURE 35: ESTIMATE OF 2021 CU TARGET SALE BY TYPE 89
FIGURE 36: TA SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET FORECAST 90
FIGURE 37: AL SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET FORECAST 91
FIGURE 38: TI SPUTTERING TARGET MARKET FORECAST 92
FIGURE 39: EST. 2021 SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE
(EXCLUDING PRECIOUS METALS) 94
FIGURE 40: 2021 EST. GLOBAL CU MINE PRODUCTION
21 MILLION MT 109
FIGURE 41: 2021 EST. GLOBAL REFINED CU CONSUMPTION
25 MILLION MT 111
FIGURE 42: 2021 EST. TANTALUM MINE PRODUCTION
2100 MT 112
FIGURE 43: 2021 TANTALUM APPLICATION (~2,200 T) 115
FIGURE 44: EST. WORLD BAUXITE MINING PRODUCTION 2021
390 MILLION MT 117
FIGURE 45: EST. WORLD ALUMINUM SMELTING PRODUCTION 2021
68 MILLION MT 118
FIGURE 46: EST. 2020 GLOBAL AL DEMAND 89.8 MILLION MT 119
FIGURE 47: EST. GLOBAL TI CONCENTRATE MINING PRODUCTION-
2021 9,000 MILLION MT 120
FIGURE 48: TI MINERAL CONCENTRATE PRICING 121
FIGURE 49: EST. GLOBAL 2020 TI MILL PRODUCT OUTPUT,
~175,000 MT 122
FIGURE 50: EST. GLOBAL TI SPONGE PRODUCTION-2021
210,000 THOUSAND MT 124
FIGURE 51: EST. GLOBAL TI SPONGE CAPACITY-2021
350,000 THOUSAND MT 124
FIGURE 52: EST. GLOBAL TI SPONGE FORECAST 125
FIGURE 53: EST. 2020 W MINE PRODUCTION 79,000 T 128
FIGURE 54: 2020 GLOBAL W DEMAND ~92,000 129
FIGURE 55: EST. 2021 CO MINE PRODUCTION 170,000 MT 132
FIGURE 56: EST. 2020 GLOBAL CO DEMAND 175,000 MT 135
FIGURE 57: EST. 2021 MOLYBDENUM MINING PRODUCTION,
300,000 METRIC TONS 136
FIGURE 58: GENERALIZATION OF MO SUPPLY CHAIN 137
FIGURE 59: EST 2020 MOLYBDENUM USE BY APPLICATION 138
FIGURE 60: 2021 AU MINING PRODUCTION~3,000 MT 139
FIGURE 61: 2021 AG MINING PRODUCTION~24,000 MT 140
FIGURE 62: LME CU PRICE CHART 154
FIGURE 63: TA PRICE TREND 155
FIGURE 64: LME AL PRICE CHART 156
FIGURE 65: TI SPONGE PRICE CHART 157
FIGURE 66: LME CO METAL PRICE CHART 158
FIGURE 67: W PRICE CHART 159
FIGURE 68: MOLYBDENUM PRICING 160
FIGURE 69: PRECIOUS METAL PRICE CHARTS 161
FIGURE 70: PRECIOUS METAL PRICE CHARTS 162
TABLES
TABLE 1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 25
TABLE 2: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 26
TABLE 3: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION
SERVICES FORECAST 2021 36
TABLE 4: LOGIC PVD APPLICATIONS 57
TABLE 5: DRAM PVD APPLICATIONS 58
TABLE 6: SPUTTERING TARGET SUPPLIER MANUFACTURING
LOCATIONS 74
TABLE 7: REGIONAL SPUTTERING MARKETS 75
TABLE 8: ESTIMATED TARGET COST STRUCTURE
(FOR REFERENCE ONLY) 77
TABLE 9: PHASE CHANGE MATERIAL TARGET SUPPLIERS 98
TABLE 10: MRAM TARGET SUPPLIERS 98
TABLE 11: RUTHENIUM TARGET SUPPLIERS 99
TABLE 12: PRECIOUS METAL CONSUMPTION BY APPLICATION 141
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