Description
This report provides market and technical trend information on inorganic gases and liquid CVD/ALD precursors (metal, metal oxide, high K, dielectric and SOD materials). For the last 20 years, there have been many research papers and patents published regarding ALD and CVD precursors specifically for the semiconductor industry. This report includes detail on the development path and roadmaps for new precursors and any current EHS and regulatory hurdles for these materials to enter into high volume manufacturing (HVM). Forecasts are provided on precursors of all types, with a focus is on the leading-edge front end of the line insulating and conductive materials, including high K, metal electrode, interconnect metallization, sacrificial layers, low-κ dielectrics, hard masks, mandrel, and etch stop layers. These process areas are of interest because of the high growth potential associated with leading-edge logic <45 nm, 28 nm to 10/7 nm nodes, and the future 5 & 3 nm nodes, as well as advanced DRAM and 3DNAND volatile and non-volatile memories.
Featured Press Release on ALD/High-K Market Updates and Report Highlights:
Table of Contents:
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1 Executive Summary 11 1.1 REGIONAL TRENDS – METAL PRECURSORS 12 1.2 REGIONAL TRENDS – TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET 13 1.3 PRECURSOR MARKET – HISTORICAL AND 5-YEAR FORECAST 14 1.4 CVD/ALD METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 15 1.5 ASSESSMENT- METAL & HIGH-K 16 1.6 SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECAST – WF6 (UNTIL 2023) 17 1.7 CVD AND ALD EQUIPMENT MARKET 18 1.8 ANALYST ASSESSMENT – HI K & METAL PRECURSORS 19 1.8.1 ANALYST ASSESSMENT - HI K & METAL PRECURSORS, CONTINUED 20 1.8.2 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 21 2 Scope, Purpose, and Methodology 22 2.1 SCOPE 23 2.2 PURPOSE 24 2.3 METHODOLOGY 25 2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 26 3 Semiconductor Industry Market Status & Outlook 27 3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 28 3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 30 3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 31 3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 32 3.1.4 UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ESPECIALLY FOR 2023 – SLOWER TO NEGATIVE SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED 33 3.2 CHIPS SALES BY ELECTRONIC GOODS SEGMENT 34 3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 35 3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 36 3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 39 3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 40 3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 41 3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 43 3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 44 3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 45 3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 46 3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 47 3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OVERVIEW 48 3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION SCHEDULES? 49 3.5.2 LOGISTICS ISSUES EASED DOWN 50 3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2027 51 3.5.4 TECHCET’S MATERIAL FORECAST 52 4 Precursor Market Trends 53 4.1 MARKET TRENDS 54 4.1.1 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS 56 4.1.2 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS LOGIC 57 4.1.3 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS DRAM 58 4.1.4 MARKET TRENDS – WAFER STARTS NAND 59 4.2 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 60 4.2.1 WF6 DEMAND DRIVERS 62 4.2.2 WF6 MARKET DEMAND 63 4.2.3 WF6 MARKET DEMAND, CONTINUED 64 4.2.4 WF6 MARKET DEMAND – MO ALD IP FILING 65 4.2.5 WF6 MARKET DEMAND 66 4.3 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 67 4.3.1 SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS: HAFNIUM & ZIRCONIUM 68 4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS – METAL PRECURSORS 69 4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS – METAL PRECURSORS 70 4.4.2 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 71 4.4.3 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS, CONTINUED 72 4.5 CVD AND ALD EQUIPMENT MARKET 73 4.5.1 WFE FORECAST: ALL TYPES 74 4.5.2 WFE FORECAST: DEPOSITION, ETCH & CLEAN, LITHOGRAPHY, METROLOGY ETC. 75 4.6 TECHNICAL DRIVERS /MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS BY DEVICE TYPE 76 4.6.1 GENERAL TREND LAST DECADE GOING FROM PVD & LPCVD TO PECVD & ALD 77 4.6.2 ADVANCED LOGIC NODE HVM ESTIMATE 78 4.6.3 DRAM NODE HVM ESTIMATE 84 4.6.4 3D NAND NODE HVM ESTIMATE 87 4.6.5 SUMMARY OF OPPORTUNITIES BY DEVICE SEGMENT 92 4.7 SEMICONDUCTOR PROCESS & MATERIALS TRENDS 94 4.7.1 ETCH PROCESS BY DEVICE TYPE—ATOMIC LAYER ETCHING ALE 95 4.7.2 AREA SELECTIVE DEPOSITION 105 4.7.3 DIRECTED SELF ASSEMBLY (DSA) AND EUV 106 4.7.4 DIRECT SELF ASSEMBLY (DSA) AND EUV 107 4.7.5 2D TRANSITION METAL DICHALCOGENIDES (TMD) 108 4.7.6 DRY RESIST FOR EUV 109 4.7.7 UNDERLAYERS FOR EUV RESIST 112 4.7.8 OTHER APPLICATIONS – CHAMBER COATINGS BY ALD (Y2O3) 114 4.7.9 OTHER APPLICATIONS – OPTICS 115 4.8 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – ZIRCONIUM AND HAFNIUM 116 4.8.1 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – ZIRCONIUM AND HAFNIUM 117 4.8.2 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – TITANIUM 118 4.8.3 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – TUNGSTEN 119 4.8.4 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – TUNGSTEN 120 4.8.5 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – COBALT 121 4.8.6 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES – RUTHENIUM 122 4.8.7 GREEN HOUSE GASES FROM SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION 123 4.8.8 EUV AND ENERGY 126 4.8.9 ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ATOMIC LAYER DEPOSITION (ALD) PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS TO LOWER IT 127 4.9 CHANGES IN STANDARD PACKAGING/VALVE TYPES 128 4.10 MARKET ASSESSMENT 129 5 Segment Market Statistics & Forecasts 130 5.1 PRECURSOR MARKET – HISTORICAL AND 5-YEAR FORECAST 131 5.1.1 CVD/ALD METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSOR REVENUE 2021 TO 2027 132 5.1.2 SUPPLY-DEMAND FORECAST – WF6 (UNTIL 2023) 133 5.1.3 ASSESSMENT- METAL & HIGH-K 134 5.2 M&A ACTIVITIES 135 5.2.1 M&A ACTIVITIES – MERCK & MECARO 136 5.3 NEW PLANTS 137 5.3.1 NEW PLANTS 138 5.3.2 NEW PLANTS 139 5.3.3 NEW PLANTS 140 5.3.4 NEW PLANTS 141 5.4 SUPPLIER PLANT CLOSURES – NONE REPORTED 142 5.5 NEW ENTRANTS – DRY RESIST CONSORTIUM 143 5.6 PRICING TRENDS 144 5.6.1 PRICING TRENDS – HAFNIUM 145 6 Sub Tier Material Supply Chain 147 6.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: INTRODUCTION 148 6.1.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS & CHINA 149 6.2 LOGISTICS 151 6.2.1 LOGISTICS, CONTINUED 152 6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS - NONE REPORTED 153 6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW – NONE REPORTED 154 6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 155 7 Supplier profiles 166 ADEKA CORPORATION AIR LIQUIDE (MAKER, PURIFIER, SUPPLIER) AZMAX CO., LTD CITY CHEMICAL LLC DNF CO., LTD ...and 20+ more LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: METAL PRECURSORS MARKET SHARES 2022 12 FIGURE 2: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKETS REGIONAL 2022 13 FIGURE 3: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET, M USD 14 FIGURE 4: CVD/ALD METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS 2021 TO 2027 15 FIGURE 5: WF6 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND THROUGH 2027 17 FIGURE 6: CVD AND ALD TOTAL EQUIPMENT MARKET 2022 USD 17-18 BILLION 18 FIGURE 7: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN (2022) 30 FIGURE 8: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 31 FIGURE 9: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY I NDEX (TTSI)* 32 FIGURE 10: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS 33 FIGURE 11: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 34 FIGURE 12: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 35 FIGURE 13: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST 36 FIGURE 14: ELECTRIFICATION TREND BY WORLD REGION 37 FIGURE 15: SEMICONDUCTOR AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION 38 FIGURE 16: TSMC PHOENIX INVESTMENT ESTIMATED WILL BE US $40 B 40 FIGURE 17: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 US$366 B 41 FIGURE 18: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS OF THE WORLD 43 FIGURE 19: GLOBAL TOTAL EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY SEGMENT (US$ B) 44 FIGURE 20: OVERVIEW OF ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 45 FIGURE 21: INTEL OHIO PLANT SITE FEB. 2023 AND ARTIST RENDERING (ON BOTTOM) 46 FIGURE 22: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 49 FIGURE 23: PORT OF LA 50 FIGURE 24: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE SEGMENTS** 51 FIGURE 25: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 52 FIGURE 26: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS 2021 TO 2027 56 FIGURE 27: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS LOGIC 300 MM 57 FIGURE 28: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS DRAM 300 MM 58 FIGURE 29: FORECASTS – WAFER STARTS NAND 300 MM 59 FIGURE 30: 3DNAND MARKET SHARE 2022 62 FIGURE 31: 3DNAND STRUCTURE 63 FIGURE 32: MO PRECURSORS 64 FIGURE 33: PATENT FAMILIES FILED FOR MOLYBDENUM ALD IN THE MEMORY SPACE 65 FIGURE 34: WAFER START FORECAST SHOWING TWO TIMING SCENARIOS WHERE MO COULD BE INTRODUCED 66 FIGURE 35: ZIRCONIUM METAL DEMAND 2021 1.6 MILLION TONNES 68 FIGURE 36: HAFNIUM METAL DEMAND 2021 78 TONNES 68 FIGURE 37: METAL PRECURSORS MARKET SHARES 2022 70 FIGURE 38: CVD AND ALD TOTAL EQUIPMENT MARKET 2022 USD 17-18 BILLION 73 FIGURE 39: SEMI 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT FORECAST 74 FIGURE 40: 2022 TECHINSIGHTS WFE SPENDING (TOP) AND 2022 GARTNER WFE SPENDING PER NODE (BOTTOM) 75 FIGURE 41: 3D DEVICE ARCHITECTURES 76 FIGURE 42: LOGIC TECHNOLOGY NODE ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 77 FIGURE 43: SAMSUNG START 3 NM PILOT RAMP USING GAA-FET TECHNOLOGY JUNE 2022 79 FIGURE 44: IMEC 2022 LOGIC ROADMAP 80 FIGURE 45: SCALING AND LITHOGRAPHY TRENDS – A HIGH COST IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURE, ENERGY AND EMISSIONS 81 FIGURE 46: APPLIED MATERIALS CENTURA PATTERN SHAPING CLUSTER 82 FIGURE 47: DRAM TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 84 FIGURE 48: IP FILING IN THE FIELD OF 3DRAM IS ACCELERATING 85 FIGURE 49: NAND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR LEADING IDMS 87 FIGURE 50: PATHWAYS FOR CONTINUED 3D NAND SCALING 88 FIGURE 51: 3DNAND STACK TRENDS FROM <100L TO 4 STACKS 89 FIGURE 52: MEMORY STACK CHALLENGES FOR V-NAND 90 FIGURE 53A: FINFET TO GAA TRANSISTOR DIAGRAMS SHOWING SELECTIVE ETCHING IS NEEDED TO ADDRESS DEVICE COMPLEXITY 95 FIGURE 53B: ALE PROCESS CYCLE 95 FIGURE 54: PERIOD TABLE INDICATING CANDIDATES FOR ALE (ISOTROPIC ETCHING) 96 FIGURE 55: APPLICATION OF ALE (ISOTROPIC ETCH) 97 FIGURE 56: ALD AND ALE COMBO PROCESS 98 FIGURE 57: PLASMA AND THERMAL ALE PROCESSES 99 FIGURE 58: LAM ALE PROCESS 100 FIGURE 59: ALD / ALE PROCESS ROADMAP 101 FIGURE 60: ALE PATENT ACTIVITY BY COMPANY THROUGH 2022 102 FIGURE 61: AREA SELECTIVE SIN DEPOSITION BY ALD (AVS ASD2022) 105 FIGURE 62: DSA AND EUS PROCESSES 106 FIGURE 63: RESIST RECTIFICATION WITH DSA 107 FIGURE 64: TEM AND ARTIST RENDERING OF MONOLAYER CHANNEL FORMATION 108 FIGURE 65: EUV LITHOGRAPHY ENABLING GATE STRUCTURES AND PITCH SCALING 109 FIGURE 66: DRY RESIST FOR EUV SEM IMAGE 110 FIGURE 67: SPIN ON CARBON (SOC) DIELECTRIC FOR EUV METAL OXIDE RESISTS PATTERNS AFTER LITHO 111 FIGURE 68: UNDERLAYER (DIELECTRIC) HARDMASKS TRENDS FOR NIGH NA EUV 112 FIGURE 69: SPIN ON PRIMER (SOC) VS. HMDS PRIMER 113 FIGURE 70: Y2O3 ALD VS. SPRAY COATINGS 114 FIGURE 71: GREENHOUSE GAS CONTRIBUTIONS OF CHIP FAB MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT 123 FIGURE 72: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (GWP) OF VARIOUS PROCESSES AND GASES 124 FIGURE 73: CO2EQ OUTPUT FROM ETCH GASES (SOURCE: IMEC) 125 FIGURE 74: TOTAL EMISSIONS AND ENERGY USE PROJECTION PER LOGIC NODE 126 FIGURE 75: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ALD 127 FIGURE 76: SEGMENTATION OF THE AMPOULE FLEET 2020 128 FIGURE 77: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET, M USD 131 FIGURE 78: CVD/ALD METAL & HIGH-K PRECURSORS 2021 TO 2027 132 FIGURE 79: WF6 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND THROUGH 2027 133 FIGURE 80: WHAT IS EUV DRY RESIST? 143 FIGURE 81: HAFNIUM METAL SPOT PRICING 145 FIGURE 82: TYPICAL NON-HALIDE LIGANDS USED FOR ALD PRECURSORS 148 FIGURE 83: EXAMPLES OF PRECURSORS SUPPLIED BY SHIP 151 FIGURE 84: OCEAN CONTAINER PRICE INDEX - JULY ‘20 TO MARCH ‘23 152 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR REVENUES BY REGION (US$ M) 14 TABLE 2: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKETS BY REGION (US$ M) 15 TABLE 3: 2017 TO 2027 5-YEAR CAGRS 16 TABLE 4: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 32 TABLE 5: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 33 TABLE 6: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES MARKET SPENDING 2022 43 TABLE 7: PRECURSOR USAGE OF LEADING IDMS 73 TABLE 8: DIELECTRIC PRECURSOR MARKET SIZE BY REGION 75 TABLE 9: TOTAL PRECURSOR MARKET SIZE BY REGION 76 TABLE 10: REGIONAL PRECURSOR MARKETS 77 TABLE 11: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS, CONTINUED 78 TABLE 12: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR LOGIC DEVICES 89 TABLE 13: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR DRAM 92 TABLE 14: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL FOR 3DNAND 97 TABLE 15: GAS TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES BY DEVICE TYPE 98 TABLE 16: OVERVIEW OF DEPOSITION PROCESSES BY DEVICE TYPE AND MATERIAL 99 TABLE 17: PRECURSOR 5-YEAR CAGR COMPARISON 138 TABLE 18: ZIRCONIUM MINING PRODUCTION AND RESERVES 156 TABLE 19: WORLDWIDE TUNGSTEN PRODUCTION AND RESERVES 159 TABLE 20: ZIRCONIUM MINING 160
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