Description
Market Research & Supply-Chain Analysis Report on Silicon Wafers used for Semiconductor Device Manufacturing
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10
1.1 WAFER BUSINESS – MARKET OVERVIEW 11
1.2 SILICON WAFER REVENUE TRENDS 12
1.3 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING 2022 OUTLOOK 13
1.4 FIRST QUARTER 2022 FINANCIALS OF TOP 5 14
1.5 WAFER SEGMENT TRENDS 15
1.6 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR FORECAST BY SEGMENT 16
1.7 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR FORECAST BY REVENUES 17
1.8 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 18
1.9 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 19
1.10 EHS ISSUES/CONCERNS 20
1.11 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 21
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 24
2.1 SCOPE 25
2.2 PURPOSE 26
2.3 METHODOLOGY 27
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 28
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 29
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 30
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 32
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 33
3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 34
3.2 ELECTRONIC GOODS MARKET 35
3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 36
3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENT 37
3.2.1.1 ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) MARKET TRENDS 38
3.2.1.2 INCREASE IN SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT FOR AUTOS 39
3.2.2 SERVERS / IT MARKET 40
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 41
3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 42
3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 43
3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 44
3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 45
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 46
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 47
3.4.1 POLICY AND TRADE ISSUES 48
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 49
3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP
PRODUCTION SCHEDULES? 50
3.5.2 CONTINUED LOGISTICS ISSUES PLAGUE THE WESTERN WORLD 51
3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2026 52
3.5.4 TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST 53
3.5.5 TECHCET’S MATERIALS FORECAST 54
4 WAFERS MARKET TRENDS 55
4.1 MARKET TRENDS 56
4.1.1 2021 WAFER MARKET LEADING INTO 2022 57
4.1.2 WAFER MARKET OUTLOOK 58
4.1.3 TRENDS - SILICON WAFER SHIPMENTS GROWING & SUPPLY
CONSTRAINTS INCREASING 59
4.2 SILICON WAFER SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 61
4.2.1 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY 62
4.2.2 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – EXPANSIONS 63
4.2.3 INVESTMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS- OVERVIEW 64
4.2.3.1 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY COMMENTS 65
4.2.3.2 INVESTMENT PLANS/PROJECT SUMMARY 66
4.2.4 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – REGIONAL 67
4.2.5 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – 300 MM
CAPACITY FOR SUPPLIERS 68
4.2.6 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – CHINA 69
4.2.6.1 CHINA SUPPLIERS- 300 MM PLANTS/INVESTMENTS 70
4.2.6.2 CHINA SUPPLIERS- 200 MM PLANTS/INVESTMENTS 72
4.2.6.3 CHINA IMPACT ON GLOBAL 200 MM SUPPLY 73
4.2.7 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND OF 200 MM AND CHINA’S IMPACT 74
4.2.8 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND OF 300 MM 75
4.3 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 76
4.3.1 GENERAL WAFER TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW 77
4.3.2 SOI AND OTHER ENGINEERED SUBSTRATES AND APPLICATIONS 78
4.3.3 SIC WAFERS 79
4.3.3.1 SILICON CARBIDE WAFER SUPPLY AND DEMAND 80
4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS 81
4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 83
4.5 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES 85
4.5.1 EHS ISSUES 86
4.5.2 LOGISTIC ISSUES 87
5 SUPPLIER MARKET LANDSCAPE 88
5.1 MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 89
5.1.1 WAFER MARKET REVENUES ESTIMATE AND FORECAST,
SILICON AND SOI 90
5.1.2 SILICON WAFER REVENUES ASP TRENDS 91
5.13 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS – WAFER SHIPMENT 5-YEAR
FORECAST BY DIAMETER 92
5.1.4 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS – QUARTERLY WAFER SHIPMENT
FORECAST THROUGH 4Q2022 BY DIAMETER 93
5.1.4.1 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS - WAFER BY DIAMETER
FORECAST SUMMARY 94
5.1.5 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 300 MM 95
5.1.6 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 200 MM 96
5.1.7 EPITAXIAL SILICON WAFERS FORECASTS - ANNUAL
SILICON EPI WAFER SHIPMENT FORECAST SUMMARY 97
5.1.7.1 EPITAXIAL SILICON WAFERS - 5-YEAR 98
5.1.7.2 EPITAXIAL SILICON WAFERS FORECASTS – 300 MM
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE 99
5.1.8 SOI WAFERS – 5 YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 100
5.1.8.1 SOI WAFERS – REVENUES 2016-2021 BY DIAMETER 101
5.1.9 SILICON WAFER MARKET SHARE 102
5.1.10 FIRST QUARTER 2022 - SUPPLIERS’ ACTIVITY &
REPORTED REVENUES 103
5.1.10.1 FIRST QUARTER 2022 TOP 5 SUPPLIER ACTIVITY &
REPORTED REVENUES 104
5.1.10.2 FIRST QUARTER 2022 ACTIVITY – SHE 105
5.1.10.3 FIRST QUARTER 2022 ACTIVITY – GLOBALWAFERS 107
5.1.10.4 FIRST QUARTER 2022 ACTIVITY – SILTRONIC 108
5.1.10.5 FIRST QUARTER 2022 ACTIVITY – SK SILTRON 109
5.1.10.6 FIRST QUARTER 2021 ACTIVITY – SOITEC 110
5.2 M&A ACTIVITY AND PARTNERSHIPS 111
5.2.1 M&A ACTIVITY 112
5.2.2 SIC INVESTMENTS & PARTNERSHIPS – SIC 114
5.2.3 GAN ON SILICON 117
5.3 PLANT CLOSURES - NONE 118
5.4 NEW ENTRANTS 119
5.5 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK
OF DISCONTINUATIONS 120
5.6 PRICING TRENDS 121
5.6.1 WAFER PRICING TRENDS 122
5.6.2 WAFER PRICING TREND GRAPH 123
5.7 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 124
5.7.1 ASSESSMENT OF WAFER SUPPLIERS 125
6 SUB TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN, POLYSILICON 127
6.1 SUB TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: SOURCES & MARKETS 128
6.1.1 POLYSILICON MARKET BACKGROUND 129
6.1.2 POLYSILICON SOLAR VS. SEMICONDUCTOR GRADE 131
6.1.3 SEMICONDUCTOR GRADE POLYSILICON DEMAND 132
6.1.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: POLYSILICON MARKET SHARE 133
6.1.5 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS 134
6.1.5.1 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS IN CHINA 135
6.1.6 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIER NEWS 136
6.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS 138
6.2.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS 139
6.2.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS – REC SILICON 140
6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN M&A ACTIVITY 141
6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 142
6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS 143
6.6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES 144
6.7 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES 145
6.8 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 146
6.8.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN - POLYSILICON PRICING 147
6.9 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 148
6.9.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN - ANALYST ASSESSMENT 149
7 SUPPLIER PROFILES 150
AYMONT
CENGOL
CETC
CHONGQING AST
ESWIN
FERROTEC
GLOBALWAFERS
GRITEK
GT ADVANCED TECH
MCL
…and many more
8 APPENDIX 222
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: SILICON WAFER SHIPMENTS AND REVENUES 12
FIGURE 2: COMBINED REVENUES OF SEH, SUMCO, SAS-GLOBAL WAFERS,
SILTRONIC, SK SILTRON 14
FIGURE 3: SILICON WAFER AREA SHIPMENTS 16
FIGURE 4: TOTAL SILICON WAFER MARKET REVENUES 17
FIGURE 5: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY
CHAIN (2021) 32
FIGURE 6: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 33
FIGURE 7: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX* 34
FIGURE 8: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 35
FIGURE 9: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 36
FIGURE 10: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST, 2021, Q3 37
FIGURE 11: GLOBAL EV TRENDS 38
FIGURE 12: SEMICONDUCTOR SPEND PER VEHICLE TYPE 39
FIGURE 13: TSMC CONSTRUCTION SITE IN ARIZONA. 41
FIGURE 14: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026 > US$460 B 42
FIGURE 15: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS
OF THE WORLD 43
FIGURE 16: 3-MONTH AVERAGE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT
BILLINGS 44
FIGURE 17: OVERVIEW OF DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 45
FIGURE 18: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 50
FIGURE 19: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE 52
FIGURE 20: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE 53
FIGURE 21: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 54
FIGURE 22: WW QUARTERLY SILICON AREA WAFER SHIPMENTS 55
FIGURE 23: QUARTERLY WAFER SHIPMENTS FOR 200 MM & 300 MM 56
FIGURE 24: POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CHINA SUPPLIERS ON 200 MM
WAFER CAPACITY 74
FIGURE 25: 300 MM WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST 75
FIGURE 26: SOI WAFER APPLICATIONS 78
FIGURE 27: SIC WAFERS IN PRODUCTION 79
FIGURE 28: SILICON CARBIDE WAFER DEMAND BY APPLICATION 28
FIGURE 29: WAFER REVENUES BY REGION 81
FIGURE 30: GLOBAL SILICON WAFER REVENUES 90
FIGURE 31: ASP TRENDS AND SILICON REVENUES (EXCLUDING SOI) 91
FIGURE 32: SILICON WAFER SHIPMENT FORECAST BY DIAMETER,
<150NM TO 300NM 92
FIGURE 33: WAFER SHIPMENTS FORECAST THROUGH 4Q2022 BY DIAMETER 93
FIGURE 34: 300 MM WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST (PREVIOUSLY SHOWN
IN SECTION 4.3 – PROVIDED HERE FOR COMPLETENESS.) 95
FIGURE 35: 200 MM WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECAST 96
FIGURE 36: EPI WAFER AREA SHIPMENT FORECAST 98
FIGURE 37: 300 MM EPI WAFER SUPPLY/DEMAND (PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED
IN SECTION 4.3. PROVIDED HERE FOR COMPLETENESS) 99
FIGURE 38: SOI WAFER REVENUE FORECAST 100
FIGURE 39: SOI WAFER REVENUES BY DIAMETER 101
FIGURE 40: 2021 WAFER SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE 102
FIGURE 41: TOP 5 WAFER MAKERS’ QUARTERLY WAFER SALES COMBINED
REVENUES OF SEH, SUMCO, SAS-GLOBALWAFERS,
SILTRONIC, SK SILTRON 104
FIGURE 42: SEH’S ELECTRONIC MATERIAL SALES FY ENDING
MARCH 31, 2022 105
FIGURE 43: SUMCO’S CY1Q2022 SUMMARY 106
FIGURE 44: GLOBALWAFERS QUARTERLY SALES 107
FIGURE 45: SILTRONIC’S CY1Q SUMMARY 108
FIGURE 46: SK SILTRON’S CY1Q2022 SUMMARY 109
FIGURE 47: SOITEC FY2022 SALES 110
FIGURE 48: WORLDWIDE SILICON ASP TRENDS (EXCLUDING SOI) 121
FIGURE 49: AGGREGATED WAFER PRICING TRENDS BY DIAMETER 123
FIGURE 50: POLYSILICON DEMANDSEMICONDUCTOR VS. SOLAR 131
FIGURE 51: POLYSILICON DEMAND FORECAST FOR SEMICONDUCTOR
WAFERS 132
FIGURE 52: ENERGY COST TRENDS (REPORTED BY WACKER IN ITS
1Q 2022 REPORT) 136
FIGURE 53: PRICE TREND IN SOLAR POLYSILICON 147
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: WAFER MARKET GROWTH OVERVIEW 11
TABLE 2: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 30
TABLE 3: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 31
TABLE 4: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES
FORECAST 2021 40
TABLE 5: OVERVIEW OF ANNOUNCED 2022 WAFER SUPPLIER INVESTMENTS 64
TABLE 6: INVESTMENT ACTIVITY BY LEADING WAFER SUPPLIERS 66
TABLE 7: WAFER SUPPLIER MANUFACTURING LOCATIONS 67
TABLE 8: ESTIMATED 300 MM PRIME WAFER PRODUCTION
CAPACITY SHARE 68
TABLE 9: ESTIMATED CHINA SUPPLIER CAPACITY SHARE 69
TABLE 10: CHINA WAFER SUPPLIER 300 MM STATUS 70
TABLE 11: CHINA WAFER SUPPLIER 200 MM STATUS 72
TABLE 12: ESTIMATED 200 MM WAFER CAPACITY CHINA SUPPLIERS 73
TABLE 13: REGIONAL WAFER MARKETS 83
TABLE 14: TOTAL WAFER SHIPMENT GROWTH RATES BY DIAMETER 94
TABLE 15: EPITAXIAL WAFER SHIPMENT GROWTH RATES BY DIAMETER 97
TABLE 16: 1Q2022 QUARTERLY WAFER SUPPLIER SALES 103
TABLE 17: : POLYSILICON SUPPLIER RANKING 133
TABLE 18: SEMICONDUCTOR –GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS 134
TABLE 19: SEMICONDUCTOR –GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS IN CHINA 135
TABLE 20: WAFER TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 152
TABLE 21: GENERAL TRENDS AND ISSUES 153
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