Description
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9
1.1 WAFER BUSINESS – MARKET OVERVIEW 10
1.2 SILICON WAFER REVENUE TRENDS 11
1.3 MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING OUTLOOK 12
1.4 FIRST QUARTER 2021 FINANCIALS OF TOP 5 13
1.5 YEAR 2020 IN REVIEW 14
1.6 WAFER SEGMENT TRENDS 15
1.7 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR FORECAST BY SEGMENT 16
1.8 SILICON WAFER 5-YEAR FORECAST BY REVENUES 17
1.9 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 18
1.10 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 19
1.11 EHS ISSUES/CONCERNS 20
1.12 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 21
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 23
2.1 SCOPE 24
2.2 PURPOSE 25
2.3 METHODOLOGY 26
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 27
3 MARKET OUTLOOK 28
3.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 29
3.2 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 30
3.2.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 32
3.2.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 33
3.2.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 34
3.2.4 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 35
3.2.5 SEMICONDUCTOR UNITS AND WAFER SHIPMENT GROWTH FORECAST 36
3.3 ELECTRONIC GOODS MARKET 37
3.3.1 SMARTPHONES 38
3.3.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 39
3.3.3 AUTOMOTIVE SALES 40
3.3.4 SERVERS / IT 45
3.4 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 47
3.4.1 SEMICONDUCTOR UNITS AND WAFER SHIPMENT GROWTH FORECAST 48
3.4.2 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 49
3.4.3 RECENT INVESTMENT AND FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 52
3.4.4 OVERALL CHINA MARKET TRENDS 54
3.5 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 56
3.5.1 POLICY AND TRADE ISSUES 57
3.5.2 U.S. CHIPS ACT 59
3.5.3 OTHER SEMICONDUCTOR FUNDING ACTIVITY 60
3.6 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 61
3.6.1 SEMICONDUCTOR – LEADING EDGE NODE GROWTH 63
3.6.2 SEMICONDUCTOR – NON-LEADING EDGE NODE GROWTH 64
3.6.3 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS FORECAST 65
4 WAFERS MARKET TRENDS 66
4.1 MARKET TRENDS 67
4.1.1 WAFER MARKET 2020 GOING INTO 2021 68
4.1.2 WAFER MARKET OUTLOOK 69
4.1.3 TRENDS - SILICON WAFER SHIPMENTS GROWING &
SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS INCREASING 73
4.2 SILICON WAFER SUPPLY CAPACITY AND DEMAND, INVESTMENTS 71
4.2.1 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – DELAYS 74
4.2.2 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – EXPANSIONS 75
4.2.3 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY- OVERVIEW 76
4.2.4 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – REGIONAL 79
4.2.5 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – 300 MM
CAPACITY FOR SUPPLIERS 80
4.2.6 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – CHINA 81
4.2.7 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND OF 200MM AND CHINA’S IMPACT 86
4.2.8 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND OF 300 MM 87
4.3 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 88
4.3.1 GENERAL WAFER TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW 89
4.3.2 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 90
4.3.3 LEGACY AND SPECIALTY APPLICATION TECHNOLOGY 91
4.3.4 SOI AND OTHER ENGINEERED SUBSTRATES AND APPLICATIONS 92
4.3.5 SIC WAFERS 93
4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS 94
4.4.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 96
4.5 EHS AND LOGISTIC ISSUES 98
4.5.1 EHS ISSUES 99
4.5.2 LOGISTIC ISSUES 100
5 SUPPLIER MARKET LANDSCAPE 101
5.1 MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 102
5.1.1 WAFER MARKET REVENUES ESTIMATE AND FORECAST,
SILICON AND SOI 103
5.1.2 SILICON WAFER REVENUES ASP TRENDS 104
5.1.3 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS – WAFER SHIPMENT 5-YEAR
FORECAST BY DIAMETER 105
5.1.4 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS – QUARTERLY WAFER SHIPMENT
FORECAST THROUGH 4Q-2021 BY DIAMETER 106
5.1.5 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 300 MM 108
5.1.6 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND BALANCE – 200MM 109
5.1.7 EPITAXIAL SILICON WAFERS FORECASTS - ANNUAL SILICON EPI
WAFER SHIPMENT FORECAST SUMMARY 110
5.1.8 SOI WAFERS – 5 YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 113
5.1.9 SILICON WAFER MARKET SHARE 115
5.1.10 FIRST QUARTER 2021 - TOP 5 SUPPLIERS’ ACTIVITY &
REPORTED REVENUES 116
5.2 M&A ACTIVITY AND PARTNERSHIPS 123
5.2.1 M&A ACTIVITY - IMPACT ON MARKET SHARE 124
5.2.2 SIC INVESTMENTS & PARTNERSHIPS – SIC 126
5.2.3 GAN ON SILICON 128
5.3 PLANT CLOSURES 129
5.4 NEW ENTRANTS 130
5.4.1 NEW SUPPLIERS IN CHINA 131
5.5 SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE AT RISK OF
DISCONTINUATIONS 132
5.6 PRICING TRENDS 133
5.6.1 WAFER PRICING TRENDS 134
5.6.2 WAFER PRICING TREND GRAPH 135
5.7 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 136
5.7.1 ASSESSMENT OF WAFER SUPPLIERS 137
6 SUB TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN 140
6.1 SUB TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: SOURCES & MARKETS 141
6.1.1 POLYSILICON MARKET BACKGROUND 142
6.1.2 POLYSILICON SUPPLY VS. DEMAND 144
6.1.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: POLYSILICON MARKET SHARE 145
6.1.4 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS 146
6.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS 148
6.2.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS 149
6.2.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS – REC SILICON 150
6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN M&A ACTIVITY 151
6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 152
6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS 153
6.6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW 154
6.7 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES 155
6.8 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 156
6.8.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN - POLYSILICON PRICING 157
6.9 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 158
6.9.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN - ANALYST ASSESSMENT 159
7 SUPPLIER PROFILES 160
AYMONT
CENGOL
CHONGQING AST
ESWIN
FERROTEC
GLOBALWAFERS
GRITEK
GT ADVANCED TECH
MCL
ZHEJIANG JRH
II-VI
OKMETIC
SHIN-ETSU HANDOTAI
SICRYSTAL
SILTRONIC
CREE/WOLFSPEED
SK SILTRON
SUMCO
TAINERGY
TANKEBLUE
WAFER WORKS
ZHONGHUAN
ZINGSEMI
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Silicon Wafer Shipments and Revenues 11
Figure 2: Combined Revenues of SEH, Sumco,
SAS-GlobalWafers, Siltronic 13
Figure 3: Silicon Wafer Area Shipments 16
Figure 4: Total Silicon Wafer Market Revenues 17
Figure 5: Global Economy and the Electronics
Supply Chain (2020) 32
Figure 6: Worldwide Semiconductor Sales 33
Figure 7: Worldwide Semiconductor Sales
(TSMC, UMC, VIS, ASE, ChipMOS, KYEC) 34
Figure 8: Semiconductor Revenues 2021 35
Figure 9: Semiconductor Wafer Area Shipments 36
Figure 10: Semiconductor Chip Application 37
Figure11: Mobile Phone Shipments WW Estimates 38
Figure 12: PC Notebook Shipments 39
Figure 13: U.S. Automotive Sales 40
Figure 14: Monthly Automotive Sales Trends 41
Figure 15: Global EV Trends 42
Figure 16: Semiconductor Spend per Vehicle Type 43
Figure 17: Semiconductor Content by Automotive Application 44
Figure 18: Amazon Server Farm 45
Figure 19: Semiconductor Wafer Area Shipments 48
Figure 20: 3-month Average Semiconductor Equipment Billings 49
Figure 21: Capital Spending Trends by Technology Node 50
Figure 22: Overview of Logic Roadmap Trends 51
Figure 23: China IC Market and Production Trends 54
Figure 24: 300mm Wafer Starts 63
Figure 25: Wafer Starts 64
Figure 26: Global Semiconductor Materials Outlook 65
Figure 27: WW Quarterly Silicon Area Wafer Shipments 71
Figure 28: Quarterly Wafer Shipments for 200mm & 300mm 72
Figure 29: Potential Impact of China Suppliers on
200 mm Wafer Capacity 86
Figure 30: 300 mm Wafer Supply/Demand Forecast 87
Figure 31: SOI Wafer Applications 92
Figure 32: SiC Wafers in Production 93
Figure 33: Est. 2020 Revenues = US12.3B 94
Figure 34: Global Silicon Wafer Revenues 103
Figure 35: ASP Trends and Silicon Revenues 104
Figure 36: Silicon Wafer Shipment Forecast by Diameter,
<150nm to 300nm 105
Figure 37: Wafer Shipments Forecast through 4Q2020 by Diameter 106
Figure 38: 300 mm Wafer Supply/Demand Forecast (Previously shown
in section 4.3 – provided here for completeness.) 108
Figure 39: 200 mm Wafer Supply/Demand Forecast (Previously shown
in section 4.3 – provided here for completeness.) 109
Figure 40: EPI Wafer Area Shipment Forecast 111
Figure 41: 300 mm Epi Wafer Supply/Demand (Previously provided
in section 4.3. Provided here for completeness) 112
Figure 42: SOI Wafer Revenue Forecast 113
Figure 43: SOI Wafer Revenues by Diameter 114
Figure 44: 2020 Wafer Supplier Market Share 115
Figure 45: Top 5 Wafer Makers’ Quarterly Wafer Sales(2020-2021) 117
Figure 46: Summary of SEH’s FY Ending March 31, 2021 Results 118
Figure 47: GlobalWafers Quarterly Sales 119
Figure 48: Siltronic’s 1Q Summary 120
Figure 49: Sumco’s 1Q2021 Summary 121
Figure 50: Soitec 4QFY2021 Sales (1QCY2021) 122
Figure 51: 2020 Wafer Supplier Market Share 123
Figure 52: Worldwide Silicon ASP Trends 133
Figure 53: Aggregated Wafer Pricing Trends by Diameter 135
Figure 54: Polysilicon Demand 144
Figure 55: Polysilicon Market Share 145
Figure 56: Price Trend in Solar Polysilicon 157
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Wafer Market Growth Overview 10
Table 2: Global GDP and Semiconductor Revenues* 30
Table 3: IMF World Economic Outlook* 31
Table 4: Data Center Systems and Communication
Services Forecast 2021 46
Table 5: Device Maker Investment Activity 52
Table 6: US Chips Act Provisions 59
Table 7: Overview 2021 Wafer Supplier Investment Activity 76
Table 8: Status of Wafer Supplier Investment/Capacity Plans 77
Table 9: Wafer Supplier Manufacturing Locations 79
Table 10: Estimated 300 mm Prime Wafer Production
Capacity Share 80
Table 11: Estimated China Supplier Capacity Share 81
Table 12: China Wafer Supplier 300 mm Status 82
Table 13: China Wafer Supplier 200 mm Status 84
Table 14: Estimated 200 mm Wafer Capacity China Suppliers 85
Table 15: Wafer Technology Trends 90
Table 16: General Trends and Issues 91
Table 17: Regional Wafer Markets 96
Table 18: Total Wafer Shipment Growth Rates by Diameter 107
Table 19: Epitaxial Wafer Shipment Growth Rates by Diameter 110
Table 20: 1Q2022 Quarterly Wafer Supplier Sales 116
Table 21: Semiconductor –Grade Polysilicon Suppliers 146
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