Description
This report covers the Metal Chemicals market trends and supply-chain as it applied to Advanced Packaging (wafer level) and Semiconductor Device Manufacturing (damascene process). Included are forecasts for copper plating and additives, market shares, technical trends, and supplier profiles. Also included in the appendix is a supplier product comparison table of publicly available information on plating products used for advanced packaging.
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Table of Contents:
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1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9
1.2 ADVANCED PACKAGING PER WAFER STARTS 10
1.3 DEVICE DEMAND DRIVERS - LOGIC 11
1.4 CU PLATING FORECAST FOR DAMASCENE (FE) AND
ADVANCED PACKAGING 12
1.5 MARKET SHARES 13
1.6 SUPPLIER ACTIVITIES – VARIOUS ANNOUNCEMENTS 14
1.7 RISK FACTORS 15
1.8 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 16
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 17
2.1 SCOPE 18
2.2 PURPOSE 19
2.3 METHODOLOGY 20
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ 2022 REPORTS 21
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET OUTLOOK 22
3.1 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 23
3.1.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 25
3.1.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 26
3.1.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 27
3.1.4 UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS ESPECIALLY FOR 2023 –
SLOWER TO
NEGATIVE SEMI REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED 28
3.2 ELECTRONIC GOODS MARKET 29
3.2.1 SMARTPHONES 30
3.2.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 31
3.2.2.1 ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) MARKET TRENDS 32
3.2.2.2 INCREASE IN SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT FOR AUTOS 33
3.2.3 SERVERS / IT MARKET 34
3.3 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 35
3.3.1 FAB EXPANSION ANNOUNCEMENT SUMMARY 36
3.3.2 WW FAB EXPANSION DRIVING GROWTH 37
3.3.3 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS 38
3.3.4 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS 39
3.3.5 FAB INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT 40
3.4 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 41
3.4.1 POLICY AND TRADE ISSUES 42
3.5 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 43
3.5.1 COULD MATERIALS CAPACITY LIMIT CHIP PRODUCTION
SCHEDULES? 44
3.5.2 CONTINUED LOGISTICS ISSUES PLAGUE THE WESTERN WORLD 45
3.5.3 TECHCET WAFER STARTS FORECAST THROUGH 2026 46
3.5.3.1 TECHCET WAFER START MODELING METHODOLOGY 47
3.5.4 TECHCET’S MATERIAL FORECAST 48
4 METAL CHEMICALS MARKET BY SEGMENT 49
4.1 DEFINITIONS 50
4.1.1 DEFINITIONS, CONTINUED 51
4.2 METAL PLATING CHEMICALS MARKET OVERVIEW 52
4.2.1 OVERVIEW - ADVANCED PACKAGING AND
DAMASCENE METALLIZATION 53
4.2.2 OVERVIEW - PLATING MARKET TRANSITIONAL TRENDS 54
4.3 ADVANCED PACKAGING METALLIZATION –
MARKET DRIVERS 55
4.3.1 ADVANCED PACKAGING - ADDITIVES FOR CU
PLATING REVENUE 56
4.3.2 ADVANCED PACKAGING – COPPER CHEMICALS REVENUE 57
4.3.3 ADVANCED PACKAGING ADDITIVE VOLUMES 58
4.3.4 OTHER PLATING MATERIALS FOR ADVANCED PACKAGING 59
4.3.5 SN / SNAG PLATING 60
4.3.5.1 WW NI PLATING MARKET FORECAST 61
4.4 DAMASCENE GROWTH TRENDS 62
4.4.1 DAMASCENE GROWTH DRIVERS 63
4.4.2 DAMASCENE CU PLATING REVENUES 64
4.4.3 DAMASCENE ADDITIVE VOLUMES 65
5 TECHNICAL TRENDS 66
5.1 PACKAGING TECH TRENDS 67
5.1.1 PACKAGING TECHNICAL CHALLENGES 68
5.2 TECH TRENDS 69
5.2.1 MARKET DRIVES TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 70
5.2.2 ADV LOGIC INTERCONNECT WIRING TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION 71
5.2.2.1 TRENDS - MOL AND BEOL IRDS ROADMAP 72
5.2.3 CU DAMASCENE QUALIFICATION REQUIREMENTS 73
5.2.4 LOGIC METALLIZATION ROADMAP 74
5.2.4.1 INTERCONNECT FOR ADVANCED LOGIC 75
5.2.5 ADV LOGIC BURIED POWER RAIL 76
5.2.6 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: DRAM WITH MO OR RU 77
5.2.6.1 GENERAL PROCESS FLOW ADVANCED DRAM 78
5.2.7 PRECURSOR TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: 3D NAND USING MO
OR RU 79
5.2.7.1 3D-NAND GENERATIONS 2020 -2025 80
5.2.8 EXAMPLE OF LOGIC PRO CESS FLOW 20 NM TO 32 NM
LOGIC PVD 81
5.2.8 TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY 1/2 82
5.2.8.1 TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY 2/2 83
6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 84
6.1 TOTAL ADVANCED PACKAGING AND DAMASCENE
MARKET SHARES 85
6.2 OEM MARKET SHARE– PLATING EQUIPMENT 86
6.3 MARKET SHARE BY APPLICATION – CU PLATING FOR
ADVANCED PACKAGING 87
6.4 REGIONAL PLAYERS AND OTHERS 88
6.5 M&A ACTIVITY 89
7 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 90
7.1 ADVANCED METAL PLATING APPLICATIONS MARKET ASSESSMENT 91
8 SUPPLIER PROFILES 90
BASF
DUPONT
CHANG CHUN GROUP
INCHEON CHEMICAL COMPANY
ISHIHARA CHEMICAL/UNICON
JX NIPPON MINING AND METALS
AND MORE…
9 APPENDIX A: PACKAGING TECH TRENDS 153
List of Figures
FIGURE 1: PLATING MATERIALS FOR ADVANCED PACKAGING
AND DEVICE CU
INTERCONNECT REVENUES ($M’S) 9
FIGURE 2: ADVANCED PACKAGING APPLICATIONS IN MILLIONS
OF WAFERS 10
FIGURE 3: ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICES GROWTH FORECAST 11
FIGURE 4: COPPER PLATING CHEMICALS REVENUES ($M’S)
FOR ADVANCED PACKAGING & FE/DAMASCENE 12
FIGURE 5: TOTAL PLATING MARKET SHARES FOR ADVANCED
PACKAGING AND
SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICE MFG. 2022 13
FIGURE 6: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY
CHAIN (2021) 25
FIGURE 7: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 26
FIGURE 8: TECHCET’S TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY INDEX* 27
FIGURE 9: 2022 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE
GROWTH FORECASTS 28
FIGURE 10: 2023 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE
GROWTH FORECASTS 28
FIGURE 11: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 29
FIGURE 12: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 30
FIGURE 13: WORLDWIDE PC AND TABLET FORECAST, 2021, Q3 31
FIGURE 14: GLOBAL EV TRENDS 32
FIGURE 15: SEMICONDUCTOR SPEND PER VEHICLE TYPE 33
FIGURE 16: TSMC CONSTRUCTION SITE IN ARIZONA 35
FIGURE 17: CHIP EXPANSIONS 2021-2026 > US$460 B 36
FIGURE 18: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING REGIONS
OF THE WORLD 37
FIGURE 19: 3-MONTH AVERAGE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT
BILLINGS 38
FIGURE 20: OVERVIEW OF DEVICE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP 39
FIGURE 21: EUROPE CHIP EXPANSION UPSIDE 44
FIGURE 22: TECHCET WAFER START FORECAST BY NODE 46
FIGURE 23: TECHCET MATERIALS FORECAST 48
FIGURE 24: PACKAGING METALLIZATION APPLICATIONS 50
FIGURE 25: USE OF SILICON INTERPOSER 51
FIGURE 26: VERSIONS OF TSV & PROCESS FLOW EXAMPLE 51
FIGURE 27: PLATING MATERIALS FOR ADVANCED PACKAGING
AND DEVICE CU INTERCONNECT REVENUES ($M’S) 52
FIGURE 28: CU PLATING CHEMICALS 5-YEAR FORECAST 53
FIGURE 29: ADVANCED PACKAGING APPLICATIONS IN MILLIONS
OF WAFERS 55
FIGURE 30: CU PLATING ADVANCED PACKAGING
REVENUE FORECAST ESTIMATES 56
FIGURE 31: CU PILLAR & CU RDL SEGMENTED FORECAST 57
FIGURE 32: ADV. PACKAGING CU/VMS VOLUME DEMAND FORECAST 58
FIGURE 33: ADV. PACKAGING CU PLATING ADDITIVES
VOLUME DEMAND FORECAST 58
FIGURE 34: MATERIALS STACK USING CU PILLAR (< 40 UM PITCH) 59
FIGURE 35: SN AND SNAG PLATING REVENUE 60
FIGURE 36: NICKEL PLATING REVENUE 61
FIGURE 37: ADVANCED LOGIC DEVICES GROWTH FORECAST 62
FIGURE 38: ADV LOGIC METAL PLATING WAFER PASSES 63
FIGURE 39: WW DAMASCENE REVENUE FORECAST ESTIMATES 64
FIGURE 40: DAMASCENE CU VMS VOLUME DEMAND
FORECAST ESTIMATES 65
FIGURE 41: DAMASCENE CU PLATING ADDITIVES CHEMICAL
VOLUME
DEMAND FORECAST 65
FIGURE 42: KEY TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 67
FIGURE 43: CHALLENGES OF ELECTROPLATING VIA FILL 68
FIGURE 44: METAL LEVELS PER LOGIC NODE 70
FIGURE 45: INTERCONNECT METAL COMPARISON BY RESISTIVITY 71
FIGURE 46: CU DAMASCENE QUALIFICATION 73
FIGURE 47: LEADING EDGE LOGIC POWER RAIL SCHEMES 76
FIGURE 48: DRAM STRUCTURE 77
FIGURE 49: 3D NAND STRUCTURE 79
FIGURE 50: TOTAL PLATING FOR ADV. PACKAGING AND
SEMICONDUCTOR
DEVICE MANUFACTURING 2022 85
FIGURE 51: PLATING EQUIPMENT OEM MARKET SHARES 2020% 86
FIGURE 52: PLATING CHEMICAL SUPPLIER FOR DAMASCENE AND
ADVANCED
PACKAGING APPLICATIONS 87
FIGURE 53: CLEANING COMPLEXITY 94
FIGURE 54: OSATS PACKAGING BUSINESS CANNIBALIZATION TREND 96
FIGURE 55: WAFER LEVEL PLATING 97
FIGURE 56: ADVANCED PACKAGING MARKET DRIVERS
AND APPLICATIONS. 98
FIGURE 57: COMPARISON WITH DAMASCENE- TYPE RDL 100
FIGURE 58: USE OF SILICON INTERPOSER 101
FIGURE 59: APPLE EXAMPLE INTERPOSERS 102
FIGURE 60: TSV PROCESS FLOW EXAMPLE 103
List of Tables
TABLE 1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 23
TABLE 2: IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 24
TABLE 3: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES
FORECAST
2021 34
TABLE 4: IRDS 2022 LOGIC CORE INTERCONNECT ROADMAP 72
TABLE 5: LOGIC DEVICE ROADMAP FOR METALS 74
TABLE 6: METALS REQUIRED FOR DEVICE FEATURES 75
TABLE 7: DRAM USE OF MO OR RU PRESENT & FUTURE 77
TABLE 8: GENERAL PROCESS FLOW ADVANCED DRAM 78
TABLE 9: 3D NAND MATERIAL CHANGES PRESENT & FUTURE 79
TABLE 10: NUMBER OF STACKS (S) & LAYERS (L) PER GENERATION OF
3DNAND 80
TABLE 11: EXAMPLE OF LOGIC PROCESS FLOW 20 NM TO 32 NM
LOGIC PVD 81
TABLE 12: TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY 1/2 83
TABLE 13: TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY 2/2 83
TABLE 14: REGIONAL PLAYERS – MARKET LEADER AND “OTHERS” 88
TABLE 15: CU PACKAGING APPLICATIONS AND REQUIREMENTS 105
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